Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) Fair Value 2026

HRTX · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) trades at $0.33. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HRTX
Price
$0.33
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +291.4% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HRTX?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.28 +291.4%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Heron Therapeutics, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $0.33. Based on our 13-model framework, Heron Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.28 — representing +291.4% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HRTX?

1 of 13 models are currently active for HRTX. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HRTX Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, HRTX ranks #105 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotechnology enterprise businesses. For Heron Therapeutics, Inc., metrics like R&D burn rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HRTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HRTX a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Heron Therapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Heron Therapeutics, Inc. scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HRTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HRTX's 1 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Heron Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

MNOVMediciNova, Inc.QOC 6.4IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.4BBIOBridgeBio Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.4TCRXTScan Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.4XNCRXencor, Inc.QOC 6.4STROSutro Biopharma, Inc.QOC 6.3VCNXVaccinex, Inc.QOC 5.2NMRANeumora Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.6COAGHemab Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.5EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: MNOV · IONS · BBIO · TCRX · XNCR · STRO · VCNX · NMRA · COAG · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HRTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to HRTX’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

CTMCastellum, Inc.QOC 6.4TRTTrio-Tech InternationalQOC 6.4TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4BMNRBitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.4PSNLPersonalis, Inc.QOC 6.4AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CTM · TRT · TOPP · BMNR · PSNL · AAP · NVDA

Where Does HRTX Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

HRTX is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Heron Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Heron Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX). The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HRTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.33, 1 of 1 active models suggest HRTX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Heron Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for HRTX?

Heron Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HRTX?

CirclFi analyzes HRTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HRTX a value trap in 2026?

Heron Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) a Quality of Company score of 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HRTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HRTX valuation
  • Financial statements: Heron Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000818033) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HRTX as of ; valuations recomputed .