HMH Holding Inc. (HMH) Fair Value 2026

HMH · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, HMH Holding Inc. (HMH) trades at $19.26, versus a $55.35 median fair value across its 2 active models — 187.4% above the current price. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HMH
Price
$19.26
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +273.5% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is HMH Holding Inc. (HMH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, HMH Holding Inc. (HMH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $55.35, 187.4% above the current price of $19.26. Estimates range from $38.77 to $71.93. HMH scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. HMH’s +187.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -18.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HMH Holding Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HMH?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Low Conviction
 $71.93 +273.5%
Option-Based · Low Conviction
 $38.77 +101.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is HMH Holding Inc. (HMH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HMH Holding Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $19.26. Based on our 13-model framework, HMH Holding Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $55.35 — representing +187.4% implied upside — with 2 out of 2 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $71.93 (+273.5%), versus PWERM at $38.77 (+101.3%). This +172.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HMH?

2 of 13 models are currently active for HMH. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for HMH is $55.35 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HMH Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, HMH ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Within the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services space, HMH Holding Inc. competes in an environment where breakeven oil price often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is HMH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HMH a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for HMH Holding Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, HMH Holding Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.3/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +172.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HMH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HMH's 2 active models, average confidence is 11%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HMH Holding Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

KLXEKLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4NEXTNextDecade CorporationQOC 4.3DTIDrilling Tools International CorporationQOC 5.6EROKEagleRock Land LLCQOC 4.0ACDCProFrac Holding Corp.QOC 5.6QSEPQS Energy, Inc.QOC 3.9WFRDWeatherford International plcQOC 8.6FLOCFlowco Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0NOANorth American Construction Group Ltd.QOC 6.9WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: KLXE · NEXT · DTI · EROK · ACDC · QSEP · WFRD · FLOC · NOA · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HMH?

7 companies across all industries closest to HMH’s Quality of Company score of 5.3/10.

BRWCBirdie Win CorporationQOC 5.3PMAXPowell Max LimitedQOC 5.3SAFXXCF Global, Inc.QOC 5.3ACOGAlpha Cognition Inc. Common StockQOC 5.3MSAIMultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.3QSJCTancheng Group Co., Ltd.QOC 5.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BRWC · PMAX · SAFX · ACOG · MSAI · QSJC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About HMH Holding Inc.’s Valuation?

What is HMH Holding Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HMH Holding Inc. (HMH)'s intrinsic value at $55.35 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $38.77 to $71.93. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HMH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.26, 2 of 2 active models suggest HMH may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $55.35, 187.4% above the current price of $19.26 — a consensus view that HMH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HMH Holding Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for HMH?

HMH Holding Inc.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HMH?

CirclFi analyzes HMH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HMH a value trap in 2026?

HMH Holding Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, HMH Holding Inc. (HMH) has a median fair value of $55.35 — 187.4% above the current price of $19.26 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HMH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HMH valuation
  • Financial statements: HMH Holding Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002021880) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HMH as of ; valuations recomputed .