GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) Fair Value 2026

GCTS · Semiconductors & Related Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) trades at $2.31, approximately 416% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.45. QOC: 4.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GCTS
Price
$2.31
Quality Score
4.3/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: 4 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $0.91, 60.6% below the current price of $2.31. Estimates range from $0.10 to $3.28. GCTS scores 4.3/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$0.45 -80.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.37 -40.5%

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What Is GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.30, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $2.31. With 3 out of 4 models flagging downside (-43.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $3.28 (+42.3%), versus ML-RIV at $0.10 (-95.8%). This +138.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GCTS?

4 of 13 models are currently active for GCTS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GCTS's intrinsic value at $0.45, implying -80.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GCTS Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?

Among 82 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, GCTS ranks #66 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →

As a semiconductor company, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin trajectory is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating GCTS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is GCTS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GCTS a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.3/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +138.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GCTS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GCTS's 4 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CRDO · CRUS · MPWR · NVDA · NXPI

See all Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.

What is GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.45. The Quality of Company score is 4.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GCTS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.31, 1 of 4 active models suggest GCTS may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $0.91, 60.6% below the current price of $2.31 — a consensus view that GCTS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors & Related Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.3 mean for GCTS?

GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.'s QOC of 4.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GCTS?

CirclFi analyzes GCTS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GCTS a value trap in 2026?

GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc. (GCTS) has a median fair value of $0.91 — 60.6% below the current price of $2.31 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GCTS/ · Methodology

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