TAL Education Group (TAL) Fair Value 2026

TAL · Education & Training Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, TAL Education Group (TAL) trades at $11.72. QOC: 3.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TAL
Price
$11.72
Quality Score
3.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TAL?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $10.42 -11.1%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is TAL Education Group (TAL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TAL Education Group's intrinsic value is estimated at $10.42, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $11.72. With 1 out of 1 models flagging downside (-11.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About TAL?

1 of 13 models are currently active for TAL. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TAL Rank in Education & Training Services?

Among 45 Education & Training Services stocks, TAL ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.3 signals below-average fundamentals.

TAL Education Group operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TAL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TAL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for TAL Education Group. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TAL Education Group's fundamental quality profile registers 3.3/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TAL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TAL's 1 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TAL Education Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Education & Training Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Education & Training Services stocks with 13-model coverage

XXITwenty One Capital, Inc.QOC 4.8EDTKSkillful Craftsman Education Technology LimitedQOC 3.2LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 4.9WAFUWah Fu Education Group LimitedQOC 2.7KIDZKIDZ AI Inc.QOC 5.2EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International LimitedQOC 2.5AFYAAfya LimitedQOC 8.5DAOYoudao, Inc.QOC 7.4CHGGChegg, Inc.QOC 6.0LRNStride, Inc.QOC 9.5UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: XXI · EDTK · LXEH · WAFU · KIDZ · EEIQ · AFYA · DAO · CHGG · LRN · UTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TAL?

7 companies across all industries closest to TAL’s Quality of Company score of 3.3/10.

XEX-Energy, Inc.QOC 3.3ESEAEuroseas Ltd.QOC 3.3EIKNEikon Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.3AQNAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp.QOC 3.2MRPTMacReport.Net, Inc.QOC 3.3SITSSouthern ITS International, Inc.QOC 3.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: XE · ESEA · EIKN · AQN · MRPT · SITS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TAL Education Group’s Valuation?

What is TAL Education Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for TAL Education Group (TAL). The Quality of Company score is 3.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TAL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.72, 0 of 1 active models suggest TAL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TAL Education Group's business model in Education & Training Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.3 mean for TAL?

TAL Education Group's QOC of 3.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TAL?

CirclFi analyzes TAL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TAL a value trap in 2026?

TAL Education Group's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns TAL Education Group (TAL) a Quality of Company score of 3.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TAL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TAL valuation
  • Financial statements: TAL Education Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001499620) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TAL as of ; valuations recomputed .