StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Fair Value 2026

STNE · Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) trades at $11.20, approximately 245% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.24. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STNE
Price
$11.20
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $9.74, 13.0% below the current price of $11.20. Estimates range from $3.24 to $35.92. STNE scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy StoneCo Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $3.24 -71.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $4.82 -57.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $9.74 -13.0%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $9.51 -15.1%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, StoneCo Ltd. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $11.20. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $14.96 (+33.6% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 7 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $35.92 (+220.7%), versus Bayesian DCF at $3.24 (-71.1%). This +291.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About STNE?

13 of 13 models are currently active for STNE. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates STNE's intrinsic value at $3.24, implying -71.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STNE Rank in Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation?

Among 68 Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks, STNE ranks #67 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation Stocks →

StoneCo Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STNE a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for STNE. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for StoneCo Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, StoneCo Ltd. earns a quality score of 2.0/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +291.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STNE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STNE's 13 active models, average confidence is 10%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy StoneCo Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks with 13-model coverage

INODInnodata Inc.QOC 10.0IBEXIBEX LimitedQOC 10.0UPWKUpwork Inc.QOC 9.9CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.4RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2RDDTReddit, Inc.QOC 9.0OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: INOD · IBEX · UPWK · CARG · TRAK

See all Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About StoneCo Ltd.

What is StoneCo Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.24. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STNE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.20, 5 of 13 active models suggest STNE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $9.74, 13.0% below the current price of $11.20 — a consensus view that STNE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits StoneCo Ltd.'s business model in Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for STNE?

StoneCo Ltd.'s QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STNE?

CirclFi analyzes STNE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is STNE a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for STNE at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) has a median fair value of $9.74 — 13.0% below the current price of $11.20 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STNE/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on STNE.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access