Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) Fair Value 2026

KTCC · Computer Hardware ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (61/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) trades at $2.22, versus a $3.85 median fair value across its 4 active models — 73.5% above the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 61/100 (DANGER). 4/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
KTCC
Price
$2.22
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
61/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +149.2% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 61 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $3.85, 73.5% above the current price of $2.22. Estimates range from $0.24 to $8.07. KTCC scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 61/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. KTCC’s +73.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Computer Hardware sector median is -48.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Key Tronic Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KTCC?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.24 -89.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.53 +149.2%
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What Is KTCC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $0.24 to $8.07

CirclFi's 4 active models place Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) between $0.24 and $8.07 per share, a spread of 203% of the median. The median of that range — $3.85 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KTCC, against a current price of $2.22.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.24median $3.85$8.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.24
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$8.07
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KTCC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KTCC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Key Tronic Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $2.22. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $3.85 (+73.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $8.07 (+263.6%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.24 (-89.3%). This +352.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KTCC?

4 of 13 models are currently active for KTCC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KTCC is $3.85 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.24 on its own, implying -89.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KTCC Rank in Computer Hardware?

Among 43 Computer Hardware stocks, KTCC ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

Key Tronic Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KTCC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KTCC a score of 61/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Key Tronic Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Key Tronic Corporation is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. Notably, value trap risk is elevated.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +352.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KTCC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KTCC's 4 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Key Tronic Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Computer Hardware Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Computer Hardware stocks with 13-model coverage

IONQIonQ, Inc.QOC 6.1VELOVelo3D, Inc.QOC 6.0NNDMNano Dimension Ltd.QOC 6.3BGINBgin Blockchain LimitedQOC 6.0OSSOne Stop Systems, Inc.QOC 6.4UAVSAgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc.QOC 5.9UMACUnusual Machines, Inc.QOC 5.4YIBOPlanet Image International LimitedQOC 2.8HPQHP Inc.QOC 7.9ANETArista Networks, Inc.QOC 9.8STXSeagate Technology Holdings plcQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: IONQ · VELO · NNDM · BGIN · OSS · UAVS · UMAC · YIBO · HPQ · ANET · STX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KTCC?

7 companies across all industries closest to KTCC’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0SCWO374Water Inc.QOC 6.0CURVTorrid Holdings Inc.QOC 6.0TRINTrinity Capital Inc.QOC 6.0BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 6.0UXINUxin LimitedQOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AIDX · SCWO · CURV · TRIN · BWIN · UXIN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Key Tronic Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Key Tronic Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC)'s intrinsic value at $3.85 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.24 to $8.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KTCC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.22, 2 of 4 active models suggest KTCC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $3.85, 73.5% above the current price of $2.22 — a consensus view that KTCC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Key Tronic Corporation's business model in Computer Hardware.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for KTCC?

Key Tronic Corporation's QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KTCC?

CirclFi analyzes KTCC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KTCC?

Of the 4 models currently active on KTCC, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $8.07 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.24. CirclFi's published fair value for KTCC is the median of that range, $3.85, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 203% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KTCC a value trap in 2026?

Key Tronic Corporation's Value Trap score is 61/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) has a median fair value of $3.85 — 73.5% above the current price of $2.22 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KTCC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KTCC valuation
  • Financial statements: Key Tronic Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000719733) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KTCC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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