Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) Fair Value 2026

IPI · Agricultural Inputs ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) trades at $37.68, versus a $23.49 median fair value across its 12 active models — 37.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
IPI
Price
$37.68
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.5% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $23.49, 37.7% below the current price of $37.68. Estimates range from $11.54 to $38.99. IPI scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. IPI’s -37.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Intrepid Potash, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IPI?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.67 -55.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $14.53 -61.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $22.47 -40.4%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $38.99 +3.5%
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What Is IPI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $11.54 to $38.99

CirclFi's 12 active models place Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) between $11.54 and $38.99 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $23.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IPI, against a current price of $37.68.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$11.54median $23.49$38.99
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.54
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$38.99
Model agreement0 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IPI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IPI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.49. Trading at its current price of $37.68, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -37.7%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +3.5% (fair value: $38.99), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -69.4% ($11.54). The spread between these extremes — +72.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About IPI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for IPI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IPI is $23.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.67 on its own, implying -55.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IPI Rank in Agricultural Inputs?

Among 16 Agricultural Inputs stocks, IPI ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Intrepid Potash, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is IPI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IPI a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Intrepid Potash, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Intrepid Potash, Inc. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +72.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IPI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IPI's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Intrepid Potash, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Agricultural Inputs Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Agricultural Inputs stocks with 13-model coverage

MOSThe Mosaic CompanyQOC 7.6NTRNutrien Ltd.QOC 7.4CTVACorteva, Inc.QOC 7.7SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanyQOC 6.9UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp.QOC 6.4FMCFMC CorporationQOC 6.2VRDRVerde Resources, Inc.QOC 5.4CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: MOS · NTR · CTVA · SMG · UAN · BIOX · FMC · VRDR · CF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IPI?

7 companies across all industries closest to IPI’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankQOC 7.4FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4SPROSpero Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4ROGRogers CorporationQOC 7.4NSLRNeostellar Capital Corp.QOC 7.4BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TD · FUL · SPRO · ROG · NSLR · BATL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Intrepid Potash, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)'s intrinsic value at $23.49 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.54 to $38.99. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IPI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.68, 1 of 12 active models suggest IPI may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $23.49, 37.7% below the current price of $37.68 — a consensus view that IPI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s business model in Agricultural Inputs.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for IPI?

Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IPI?

CirclFi analyzes IPI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IPI?

Of the 12 models currently active on IPI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $38.99 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.54. CirclFi's published fair value for IPI is the median of that range, $23.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IPI a value trap in 2026?

Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) has a median fair value of $23.49 — 37.7% below the current price of $37.68 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IPI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IPI valuation
  • Financial statements: Intrepid Potash, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001421461) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IPI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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