Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) Fair Value 2026

FNMA · Mortgage Finance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) trades at $6.19, versus a $0.09 median fair value across its 2 active models — 98.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FNMA
Price
$6.19
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $0.09, 98.6% below the current price of $6.19. Estimates range from $0.07 to $0.11. FNMA scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FNMA’s -98.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Federal National Mortgage Association Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FNMA?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.11 -98.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $0.07 -98.9%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Federal National Mortgage Association's intrinsic value is estimated at $0.09. Trading at its current price of $6.19, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 2 of 2 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -98.6%.

What Do the Models Say About FNMA?

2 of 13 models are currently active for FNMA. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FNMA is $0.09 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FNMA Rank in Mortgage Finance?

Among 16 Mortgage Finance stocks, FNMA ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

Federal National Mortgage Association operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FNMA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FNMA a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Federal National Mortgage Association. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Federal National Mortgage Association earns a quality score of 7.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+0.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FNMA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FNMA's 2 active models, average confidence is 5%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Federal National Mortgage Association Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Mortgage Finance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Mortgage Finance stocks with 13-model coverage

FMCCFederal Home Loan Mortgage CorporationQOC 7.3PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc.QOC 6.5VELVelocity Financial, Inc.QOC 8.8ONITOnity Group Inc.QOC 6.4BLNEBeeline Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.0GHIGreystone Housing Impact Investors LPQOC 6.1IORIncome Opportunity Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.1WDWalker & Dunlop, Inc.QOC 5.4RKTRocket Companies, Inc.QOC 4.3

Read investment analysis: FMCC · PFSI · VEL · ONIT · BLNE · GHI · IOR · WD · RKT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FNMA?

7 companies across all industries closest to FNMA’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

BLZEBackblaze, Inc.QOC 7.0EHLDEuroholdings Ltd.QOC 7.0STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0FSLYFastly, Inc.QOC 7.0FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.0OECOrion S.A.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLZE · EHLD · STLY · FSLY · FDUS · OEC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Federal National Mortgage Association’s Valuation?

What is Federal National Mortgage Association's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)'s intrinsic value at $0.09 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.07 to $0.11. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FNMA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.19, 0 of 2 active models suggest FNMA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $0.09, 98.6% below the current price of $6.19 — a consensus view that FNMA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Federal National Mortgage Association's business model in Mortgage Finance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for FNMA?

Federal National Mortgage Association's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FNMA?

CirclFi analyzes FNMA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FNMA a value trap in 2026?

Federal National Mortgage Association's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) has a median fair value of $0.09 — 98.6% below the current price of $6.19 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FNMA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FNMA valuation

Market data for FNMA as of ; valuations recomputed .