Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Fair Value 2026

BZH · Residential Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) trades at $33.22, versus a $20.15 median fair value across its 7 active models — 39.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BZH
Price
$33.22
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $20.15, 39.4% below the current price of $33.22. Estimates range from $5.83 to $67.83. BZH scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BZH’s -39.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Residential Construction sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BZH?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.15 -39.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $12.19 -63.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.83 -82.5%
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What Is BZH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $5.83 to $67.83

CirclFi's 7 active models place Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) between $5.83 and $67.83 per share, a spread of 308% of the median. The median of that range — $20.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BZH, against a current price of $33.22.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$5.83median $20.15$67.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$5.83
Most bullish modelPWERM$67.83
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BZH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BZH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $20.15. Trading at $33.22, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -39.4%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $67.83 (+104.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $5.83 (-82.5%). This +186.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BZH?

7 of 13 models are currently active for BZH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BZH is $20.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BZH Rank in Residential Construction?

Among 21 Residential Construction stocks, BZH ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

The Residential Construction sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Beazer Homes USA, Inc., metrics like capacity utilization rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BZH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BZH a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Beazer Homes USA, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +186.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BZH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BZH's 7 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Residential Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Residential Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

HOVHovnanian Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.9LGIHLGI Homes, Inc.QOC 6.2DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.QOC 6.9BXBLBoxabl Inc.QOC 6.1MTHMeritage Homes CorporationQOC 7.1SPHLSpringview Holdings LtdQOC 5.8IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.QOC 9.2NVRNVR, Inc.QOC 8.7KBHKB HomeQOC 8.1TOLToll Brothers, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: HOV · LGIH · DFH · BXBL · MTH · SPHL · IBP · NVR · KBH · TOL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BZH?

7 companies across all industries closest to BZH’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

PACKRanpak Holdings Corp.QOC 6.7FWRDForward Air CorporationQOC 6.7INLXIntellinetics, Inc.QOC 6.7SVCOSilvaco Group, Inc.QOC 6.7CRCLCircle Internet GroupQOC 6.7REREATRenew Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PACK · FWRD · INLX · SVCO · CRCL · RERE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Beazer Homes USA, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH)'s intrinsic value at $20.15 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.83 to $67.83. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BZH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.22, 2 of 7 active models suggest BZH may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $20.15, 39.4% below the current price of $33.22 — a consensus view that BZH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s business model in Residential Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for BZH?

Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BZH?

CirclFi analyzes BZH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BZH?

Of the 7 models currently active on BZH, PWERM is the most bullish at $67.83 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $5.83. CirclFi's published fair value for BZH is the median of that range, $20.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 308% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BZH a value trap in 2026?

Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) has a median fair value of $20.15 — 39.4% below the current price of $33.22 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BZH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BZH valuation
  • Financial statements: Beazer Homes USA, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000915840) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BZH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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