Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Fair Value 2026

BZH · Operative Builders ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) trades at $32.74, approximately 647% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.38. QOC: 6.3/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BZH
Price
$32.74
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $26.39, 19.4% below the current price of $32.74. Estimates range from $2.72 to $68.42. BZH scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $4.38 -86.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $26.39 -19.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $26.87 -17.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $9.70 -70.4%

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What Is Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $24.93. Trading at $32.74, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -23.9%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $68.42 (+109.0%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $2.72 (-91.7%). This +200.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BZH?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BZH. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BZH's intrinsic value at $4.38, implying -86.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BZH Rank in Operative Builders?

Among 19 Operative Builders stocks, BZH ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BZH a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BZH. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Beazer Homes USA, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +200.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BZH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BZH's 11 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Beazer Homes USA, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Operative Builders Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Operative Builders stocks with 13-model coverage

PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 10.0GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 9.9NVRNVR, Inc.QOC 9.7TMHCTaylor Morrison Home CorporatioQOC 9.6ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.QOC 9.6MHOM/I Homes, Inc.QOC 9.6KBHKB HomeQOC 9.0TOLToll Brothers, Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: PHM · GRBK · NVR · TMHC · ECG

Frequently Asked Questions About Beazer Homes USA, Inc.

What is Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.38. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BZH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.74, 4 of 11 active models suggest BZH may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $26.39, 19.4% below the current price of $32.74 — a consensus view that BZH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s business model in Operative Builders.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for BZH?

Beazer Homes USA, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BZH?

CirclFi analyzes BZH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BZH a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for BZH at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH) has a median fair value of $26.39 — 19.4% below the current price of $32.74 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BZH/ · Methodology

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