LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) Fair Value 2026

LGIH · Residential Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) trades at $57.50, versus a $28.15 median fair value across its 8 active models — 51.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LGIH
Price
$57.50
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $28.15, 51.0% below the current price of $57.50. Estimates range from $10.36 to $118.06. LGIH scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LGIH’s -51.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Residential Construction sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LGI Homes, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LGIH?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.33 -43.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $22.08 -61.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.10 -73.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.98 -58.3%
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What Is LGIH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $10.36 to $118.06

CirclFi's 8 active models place LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) between $10.36 and $118.06 per share, a spread of 383% of the median. The median of that range — $28.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LGIH, against a current price of $57.50.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$10.36median $28.15$118.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$10.36
Most bullish modelPWERM$118.06
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LGIH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LGIH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LGI Homes, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $28.15. Trading at $57.50, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -51.0%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +105.3% (fair value: $118.06), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -82.0% ($10.36). The spread between these extremes — +187.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LGIH?

8 of 13 models are currently active for LGIH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LGIH is $28.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LGIH Rank in Residential Construction?

Among 21 Residential Construction stocks, LGIH ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

The Residential Construction sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For LGI Homes, Inc., metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LGIH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LGIH a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for LGI Homes, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LGI Homes, Inc. scores 6.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +187.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LGIH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LGIH's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LGI Homes, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Residential Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Residential Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

BZHBeazer Homes USA, Inc.QOC 6.7BXBLBoxabl Inc.QOC 6.1HOVHovnanian Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.9SPHLSpringview Holdings LtdQOC 5.8DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc.QOC 6.9VNJAVanjia CorporationQOC 5.6TOLToll Brothers, Inc.QOC 9.0PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 8.5LEGHLegacy Housing CorporationQOC 7.8IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: BZH · BXBL · HOV · SPHL · DFH · VNJA · TOL · PHM · LEGH · IBP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LGIH?

7 companies across all industries closest to LGIH’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

NTIPNetwork-1 Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2SASeabridge Gold Inc.QOC 6.2QUIKQuickLogic CorporationQOC 6.2LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.QOC 6.2OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.QOC 6.2DERMJourney Medical CorporationQOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTIP · SA · QUIK · LILA · OFIX · DERM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About LGI Homes, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is LGI Homes, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)'s intrinsic value at $28.15 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.36 to $118.06. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LGIH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.50, 2 of 8 active models suggest LGIH may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $28.15, 51.0% below the current price of $57.50 — a consensus view that LGIH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LGI Homes, Inc.'s business model in Residential Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for LGIH?

LGI Homes, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LGIH?

CirclFi analyzes LGIH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LGIH?

Of the 8 models currently active on LGIH, PWERM is the most bullish at $118.06 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $10.36. CirclFi's published fair value for LGIH is the median of that range, $28.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 383% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LGIH a value trap in 2026?

LGI Homes, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) has a median fair value of $28.15 — 51.0% below the current price of $57.50 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LGIH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LGIH valuation
  • Financial statements: LGI Homes, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001580670) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LGIH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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