Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA) Fair Value 2026

BSPA · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA) trades at $82.92, versus a $20.42 median fair value across its 2 active models — 75.4% below the current price. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BSPA
Price
$82.92
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $20.42, 75.4% below the current price of $82.92. Estimates range from $18.40 to $22.43. BSPA scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BSPA’s -75.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BSPA?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($82.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $18.40 -77.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $22.43 -72.9%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $20.42. Trading at its current price of $82.92, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 2 of 2 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -75.4%.

What Do the Models Say About BSPA?

2 of 13 models are currently active for BSPA. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BSPA is $20.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BSPA Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, BSPA ranks #337 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc., metrics like return on tangible equity provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BSPA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BSPA a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. scores 5.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+4.9% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BSPA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BSPA's 2 active models, average confidence is 13%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

MGNOMagnolia Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.4BYFCBroadway Financial CorporationQOC 5.2PNBKPatriot National Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.4BMBNBenchmark Bankshares, Inc.QOC 5.1FCBMFirst Carolina Financial Services, Inc.QOC 5.5FBSIFirst Bancshares, Inc.QOC 5.1AMTBAmerant Bancorp Inc.QOC 8.4BCHBanco de ChileQOC 8.1CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.QOC 7.5ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MGNO · BYFC · PNBK · BMBN · FCBM · FBSI · AMTB · BCH · CBU · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BSPA?

7 companies across all industries closest to BSPA’s Quality of Company score of 5.3/10.

MCRPMicropolis AI RoboticsQOC 5.3PCPremium Catering (Holdings) LimitedQOC 5.3FACFactorial Energy Inc.QOC 5.3SMSISmith Micro Software, Inc.QOC 5.3NBNioCorp Developments Ltd.QOC 5.3SRGSeritage Growth PropertiesQOC 5.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MCRP · PC · FAC · SMSI · NB · SRG · NVDA

Where Does BSPA Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BSPA is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA)'s intrinsic value at $20.42 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $18.40 to $22.43. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BSPA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $82.92, 0 of 2 active models suggest BSPA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $20.42, 75.4% below the current price of $82.92 — a consensus view that BSPA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for BSPA?

Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BSPA?

CirclFi analyzes BSPA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BSPA a value trap in 2026?

Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. (BSPA) has a median fair value of $20.42 — 75.4% below the current price of $82.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BSPA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BSPA valuation
  • Financial statements: Ballston Spa Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002094107) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BSPA as of ; valuations recomputed .