Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) Fair Value 2026

ZPTA · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (47/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) trades at $0.49, versus a $0.23 median fair value across its 3 active models — 54.0% below the current price. QOC: 4.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 47/100 (WARN). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
ZPTA
Price
$0.49
Quality Score
4.7/10
Value Trap Risk
47/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +115.3% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 47 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $0.23, 54.0% below the current price of $0.49. Estimates range from $0.15 to $1.06. ZPTA scores 4.7/10 on fundamental quality and 47/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ZPTA’s -54.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -25.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Zapata Quantum, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ZPTA?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.15 -69.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.23 -54.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $1.06 +115.3%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ZPTA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.15 to $1.06

CirclFi's 3 active models place Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) between $0.15 and $1.06 per share, a spread of 402% of the median. The median of that range — $0.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ZPTA, against a current price of $0.49.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.15median $0.23$1.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.15
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.06
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ZPTA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ZPTA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Zapata Quantum, Inc. at its current price of $0.49. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $0.23 (-54.0% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +115.3% (fair value: $1.06), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -69.9% ($0.15). The spread between these extremes — +185.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ZPTA?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ZPTA. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ZPTA is $0.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.15 on its own, implying -69.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ZPTA Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 187 Software - Infrastructure stocks, ZPTA ranks #147 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

As a software business, Zapata Quantum, Inc. operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ZPTA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ZPTA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ZPTA a score of 47/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Zapata Quantum, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Zapata Quantum, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.7/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +185.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ZPTA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ZPTA's 3 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Zapata Quantum, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

BCRDBlueOne Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.8OBAIOur Bond, Inc.QOC 4.7PICSPicS N.V.QOC 4.8PAYPPayPay CorporationQOC 4.7QNCQuantum eMotion Corp.QOC 4.8AVXAvax One Technology Ltd.QOC 4.5ATENA10 Networks, Inc.QOC 9.3RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9PDYNPalladyne AI Corp.QOC 5.8FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: BCRD · OBAI · PICS · PAYP · QNC · AVX · ATEN · RPD · PDYN · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ZPTA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ZPTA’s Quality of Company score of 4.7/10.

FLDFold Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.7MNYMoneyHero LimitedQOC 4.7ZNTLZentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.7ELABPMGC Holdings Inc.QOC 4.7CMMBChemomab Therapeutics Ltd.QOC 4.7LANVLanvin Group Holdings LimitedQOC 4.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FLD · MNY · ZNTL · ELAB · CMMB · LANV · NVDA

Where Does ZPTA Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

ZPTA is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Zapata Quantum, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Zapata Quantum, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA)'s intrinsic value at $0.23 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.15 to $1.06. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 4.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ZPTA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.49, 1 of 3 active models suggest ZPTA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $0.23, 54.0% below the current price of $0.49 — a consensus view that ZPTA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Zapata Quantum, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.7 mean for ZPTA?

Zapata Quantum, Inc.'s QOC of 4.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ZPTA?

CirclFi analyzes ZPTA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ZPTA?

Of the 3 models currently active on ZPTA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1.06 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.15. CirclFi's published fair value for ZPTA is the median of that range, $0.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 402% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ZPTA a value trap in 2026?

Zapata Quantum, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 47/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Zapata Quantum, Inc. (ZPTA) has a median fair value of $0.23 — 54.0% below the current price of $0.49 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ZPTA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ZPTA valuation
  • Financial statements: Zapata Quantum, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001843714) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ZPTA as of ; valuations recomputed .