Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) Fair Value 2026

UPB · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) trades at $7.27, approximately 164% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.76. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UPB
Price
$7.27
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $2.76, 62.1% below the current price of $7.27. Estimates range from $1.22 to $8.18. UPB scores 5.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Upstream Bio, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $2.76 -62.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $3.63 -50.1%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $2.14 -70.6%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $5.51 -24.3%

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What Is Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Upstream Bio, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.75, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $7.27. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-48.4% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $8.18 (+12.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.22 (-83.2%). This +95.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Upstream Bio, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About UPB?

9 of 13 models are currently active for UPB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UPB's intrinsic value at $2.76, implying -62.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UPB Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, UPB ranks #200 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

Within the Pharmaceutical Preparations space, Upstream Bio, Inc. competes in an environment where revenue per drug often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is UPB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UPB a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Upstream Bio, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Upstream Bio, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.0/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +95.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UPB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UPB's 9 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Upstream Bio, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 10.0CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 10.0HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, IQOC 10.0NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 10.0SIGASIGA Technologies Inc.QOC 10.0UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 10.0ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 10.0RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LtdQOC 9.9

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Upstream Bio, Inc.

What is Upstream Bio, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.76. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UPB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.27, 1 of 9 active models suggest UPB may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $2.76, 62.1% below the current price of $7.27 — a consensus view that UPB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Upstream Bio, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for UPB?

Upstream Bio, Inc.'s QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UPB?

CirclFi analyzes UPB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is UPB a value trap in 2026?

Upstream Bio, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) has a median fair value of $2.76 — 62.1% below the current price of $7.27 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UPB/ · Methodology

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