Altimmune, Inc. (ALT) Fair Value 2026

ALT · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (47/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Altimmune, Inc. (ALT) trades at $2.99, approximately 107% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.45. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 47/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALT
Price
$2.99
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
47/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 47 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.45 -51.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.10 -63.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$0.44 -85.2%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$1.01 -66.1%

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What Is Altimmune, Inc. (ALT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Altimmune, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.11, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $2.99. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-63.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $2.91 (-2.7%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.10 (-96.6%). This +93.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Altimmune, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ALT. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALT's intrinsic value at $1.45, implying -51.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALT Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 62 Biotechnology stocks, ALT ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a biotech sector, Altimmune, Inc. operates in a sector where partnership revenue is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ALT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ALT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALT a score of 47/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Altimmune, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Altimmune, Inc. is rated at 5.1/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +93.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALT's 9 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Altimmune, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ADMA · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS · ABCL

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Frequently Asked Questions About Altimmune, Inc.

What is Altimmune, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Altimmune, Inc. (ALT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.45. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.99, 0 of 9 active models suggest ALT may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Altimmune, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for ALT?

Altimmune, Inc.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALT?

CirclFi analyzes ALT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALT a value trap in 2026?

Altimmune, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 47/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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