UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) Fair Value 2026

UFPI · Lumber & Wood Production ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) trades at $86.01, versus a $68.39 median fair value across its 9 active models — 20.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $92.32.

Key Facts

Ticker
UFPI
Price
$86.01
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +70.3% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $68.39, 20.5% below the current price of $86.01. Estimates range from $32.21 to $146.44. UFPI scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UFPI’s -20.5% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy UFP Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UFPI?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($86.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $92.32 +7.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $68.04 -20.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $70.85 -17.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $146.44 +70.3%
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What Is UFPI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $32.21 to $146.44

CirclFi's 9 active models place UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) between $32.21 and $146.44 per share, a spread of 167% of the median. The median of that range — $68.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UFPI, against a current price of $86.01.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$32.21median $68.39$146.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$32.21
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$146.44
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UFPI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UFPI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, UFP Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $68.39. Trading at $86.01, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -20.5%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $146.44 (+70.3%), versus Dynamic NAV at $32.21 (-62.6%). This +132.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About UFPI?

9 of 13 models are currently active for UFPI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UFPI is $68.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $92.32 on its own, implying +7.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UFPI Rank in Lumber & Wood Production?

Among 6 Lumber & Wood Production stocks, UFPI ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

UFP Industries, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is UFPI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UFPI a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for UFP Industries, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, UFP Industries, Inc. scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UFPI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UFPI's 9 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy UFP Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lumber & Wood Production Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Lumber & Wood Production stocks with 13-model coverage

SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.QOC 8.8BCCBoise Cascade CompanyQOC 7.4JCTCJewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.QOC 5.9WFGWest Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.QOC 2.7NWGLCL Workshop Group LimitedQOC 2.3

Read investment analysis: SSD · BCC · JCTC · WFG · NWGL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UFPI?

7 companies across all industries closest to UFPI’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

AMTAmerican Tower CorporationQOC 8.0MLRMiller Industries, Inc.QOC 8.0UNFUniFirst CorporationQOC 8.0OVVOvintiv Inc.QOC 8.0FNDFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0EBFEnnis, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMT · MLR · UNF · OVV · FND · EBF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About UFP Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is UFP Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI)'s intrinsic value at $68.39 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $32.21 to $146.44. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $92.32 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UFPI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $86.01, 3 of 9 active models suggest UFPI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $68.39, 20.5% below the current price of $86.01 — a consensus view that UFPI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits UFP Industries, Inc.'s business model in Lumber & Wood Production.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for UFPI?

UFP Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UFPI?

CirclFi analyzes UFPI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UFPI?

Of the 9 models currently active on UFPI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $146.44 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $32.21. CirclFi's published fair value for UFPI is the median of that range, $68.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 167% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UFPI a value trap in 2026?

UFP Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) has a median fair value of $68.39 — 20.5% below the current price of $86.01 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UFPI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UFPI valuation
  • Financial statements: UFP Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000912767) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UFPI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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