Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Fair Value 2026

NVAX · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) trades at $9.26, versus a $8.94 median fair value across its 7 active models — 3.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVAX
Price
$9.26
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +97.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $8.94, within 3.5% of the current price of $9.26. Estimates range from $3.63 to $18.29. NVAX scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NVAX’s -3.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Novavax, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVAX?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.63 -60.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $8.94 -3.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $18.29 +97.5%
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What Is NVAX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $3.63 to $18.29

CirclFi's 7 active models place Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) between $3.63 and $18.29 per share, a spread of 164% of the median. The median of that range — $8.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NVAX, against a current price of $9.26.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$3.63median $8.94$18.29
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$3.63
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$18.29
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NVAX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NVAX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Novavax, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $9.26. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $8.94 (-3.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $18.29 (+97.5%), versus Bayesian DCF at $3.63 (-60.8%). This +158.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NVAX?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NVAX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NVAX is $8.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.63 on its own, implying -60.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVAX Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, NVAX ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a biotechnology enterprise, Novavax, Inc. operates in a sector where pipeline depth and stage distribution is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NVAX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NVAX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVAX a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Novavax, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Novavax, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +158.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVAX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVAX's 7 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Novavax, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc.QOC 7.8GYREGyre Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.6LGNDLigand Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 7.9ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.6RPRXRoyalty Pharma plcQOC 8.1JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plcQOC 7.6OTLCOncotelic Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.7AIMAIM ImmunoTech Inc.QOC 4.9PALIPalisade Bio, Inc.QOC 4.2EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: KRYS · GYRE · LGND · ARWR · RPRX · JAZZ · OTLC · AIM · PALI · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVAX?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVAX’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

FPHFive Point Holdings, LLCQOC 7.7KRGKite Realty Group TrustQOC 7.7WETHWetouch Technology Inc.QOC 7.7APPNAppian CorporationQOC 7.7HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FPH · KRG · WETH · APPN · HII · MOH · NVDA

Where Does NVAX Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

NVAX is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Novavax, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Novavax, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)'s intrinsic value at $8.94 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.63 to $18.29. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVAX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.26, 3 of 7 active models suggest NVAX may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $8.94, within 3.5% of the current price of $9.26 — a consensus view that NVAX is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Novavax, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for NVAX?

Novavax, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVAX?

CirclFi analyzes NVAX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NVAX?

Of the 7 models currently active on NVAX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $18.29 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $3.63. CirclFi's published fair value for NVAX is the median of that range, $8.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 164% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NVAX a value trap in 2026?

Novavax, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) has a median fair value of $8.94 — within 3.5% of the current price of $9.26 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVAX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVAX valuation
  • Financial statements: Novavax, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001000694) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVAX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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