Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Fair Value 2026

MNR · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) trades at $13.00. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MNR
Price
$13.00
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +417.4% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $59.25 +355.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $38.02 +192.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $42.06 +223.5%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $67.27 +417.4%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Mach Natural Resources LP. Trading at $13.00 against an estimated intrinsic value of $31.60, 9 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +143.1% on average. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $67.27 (+417.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $4.76 (-63.4%). This +480.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mach Natural Resources LP's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MNR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MNR. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MNR Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, MNR ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places MNR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

As a energy sector, Mach Natural Resources LP operates in a sector where capital efficiency ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MNR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MNR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MNR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Mach Natural Resources LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Mach Natural Resources LP is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +480.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MNR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MNR's 12 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mach Natural Resources LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 10.0MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 10.0HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.7PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 9.5FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 9.5EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 9.4DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 9.4SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Mach Natural Resources LP

What is Mach Natural Resources LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MNR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.00, 10 of 12 active models suggest MNR may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mach Natural Resources LP's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for MNR?

Mach Natural Resources LP's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MNR?

CirclFi analyzes MNR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MNR a value trap in 2026?

Mach Natural Resources LP's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MNR.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access