Medtronic plc (MDT) Fair Value 2026

MDT · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Medtronic plc (MDT) trades at $89.97, versus a $58.28 median fair value across its 11 active models — 35.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $44.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDT
Price
$89.97
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Medtronic plc (MDT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Medtronic plc (MDT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $58.28, 35.2% below the current price of $89.97. Estimates range from $34.90 to $192.45. MDT scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MDT’s -35.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medtronic plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDT?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($89.97)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.15 -50.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.90 -61.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $58.28 -35.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.23 -49.7%
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What Is MDT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $34.90 to $192.45

CirclFi's 11 active models place Medtronic plc (MDT) between $34.90 and $192.45 per share, a spread of 270% of the median. The median of that range — $58.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MDT, against a current price of $89.97.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$34.90median $58.28$192.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$34.90
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$192.45
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MDT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MDT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Medtronic plc (MDT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Medtronic plc at its current price of $89.97. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $58.28 (-35.2% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +113.9% (fair value: $192.45), while EPV is the most conservative at -61.2% ($34.90). The spread between these extremes — +175.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MDT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MDT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MDT is $58.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $44.15 on its own, implying -50.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDT Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, MDT ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

As a healthcare company, Medtronic plc operates in a sector where clinical trial success rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MDT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MDT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Medtronic plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Medtronic plc is rated at 7.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +175.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDT's 11 active models, average confidence is 59%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medtronic plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

GEHCGE HealthCare Technologies Inc.QOC 7.9BIOBio-Rad Laboratories, Inc.QOC 7.8INFUInfuSystem Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1AXGNAxogen, Inc.QOC 7.6LIVNLivaNova PLCQOC 8.1BRKRBruker CorporationQOC 7.5TMCITreace Medical Concepts, Inc.QOC 6.5COCHEnvoy Medical, Inc.QOC 5.6LUDGLudwig Enterprises, Inc.QOC 3.7IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: GEHC · BIO · INFU · AXGN · LIVN · BRKR · TMCI · COCH · LUDG · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDT?

7 companies across all industries closest to MDT’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

HFBLHome Federal Bancorp, Inc. of LouisianaQOC 7.8BPRNPrinceton Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.QOC 7.8BKUBankUnited, Inc.QOC 7.8JXNJackson Financial Inc.QOC 7.8TFCTruist Financial CorporationQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HFBL · BPRN · AEO · BKU · JXN · TFC · NVDA

Where Does MDT Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

MDT is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Medtronic plc’s Valuation?

What is Medtronic plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Medtronic plc (MDT)'s intrinsic value at $58.28 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $34.90 to $192.45. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $44.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $89.97, 3 of 11 active models suggest MDT may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $58.28, 35.2% below the current price of $89.97 — a consensus view that MDT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medtronic plc's business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for MDT?

Medtronic plc's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDT?

CirclFi analyzes MDT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MDT?

Of the 11 models currently active on MDT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $192.45 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $34.90. CirclFi's published fair value for MDT is the median of that range, $58.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 270% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MDT a value trap in 2026?

Medtronic plc's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Medtronic plc (MDT) has a median fair value of $58.28 — 35.2% below the current price of $89.97 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDT valuation
  • Financial statements: Medtronic plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001613103) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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