Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) Fair Value 2026

CRGY · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) trades at $9.99, approximately 81% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $53.96. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRGY
Price
$9.99
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +439.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$53.96 +439.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$0.92 -90.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.21 +132.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$41.70 +317.2%

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What Is Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Crescent Energy Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $14.85, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $10.00. While the average implied return is +48.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +530.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $53.96 (+439.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $0.92 (-90.8%). This +530.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Crescent Energy Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CRGY?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CRGY. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CRGY's intrinsic value at $53.96, implying +439.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRGY Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, CRGY ranks #49 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

Within the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas space, Crescent Energy Company competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CRGY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRGY a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Crescent Energy Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Crescent Energy Company is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +530.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRGY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRGY's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Crescent Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Crescent Energy Company

What is Crescent Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $53.96. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRGY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.99, 5 of 12 active models suggest CRGY may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Crescent Energy Company's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for CRGY?

Crescent Energy Company's QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRGY?

CirclFi analyzes CRGY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CRGY a value trap in 2026?

Crescent Energy Company's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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