Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) Fair Value 2026

CRGY · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (46/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) trades at $13.65, versus a $14.70 median fair value across its 12 active models — 7.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 46/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRGY
Price
$13.65
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
46/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +130.6% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 46 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $14.70, within 7.7% of the current price of $13.65. Estimates range from $1.33 to $31.47. CRGY scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 46/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CRGY’s +7.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Crescent Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRGY?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.19 +128.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.67 +7.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $31.47 +130.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.58 -59.1%
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What Is CRGY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.33 to $31.47

CirclFi's 12 active models place Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) between $1.33 and $31.47 per share, a spread of 205% of the median. The median of that range — $14.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRGY, against a current price of $13.65.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$1.33median $14.70$31.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.33
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$31.47
Model agreement7 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CRGY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRGY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Crescent Energy Company at $13.65. With an estimated intrinsic value of $14.70 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +7.7%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $31.47 (+130.6%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.33 (-90.2%). This +220.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Crescent Energy Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CRGY?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CRGY. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CRGY is $14.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.19 on its own, implying +128.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRGY Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, CRGY ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, Crescent Energy Company competes in an environment where capital efficiency ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CRGY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRGY a score of 46/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Crescent Energy Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Crescent Energy Company is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +220.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRGY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRGY's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Crescent Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

RSRVThe Reserve Petroleum CompanyQOC 7.7MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5MNRMach Natural Resources LPQOC 7.7VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.QOC 7.5PROPPrairie Operating Co.QOC 7.8ANNAAleAnna, Inc.QOC 7.5BRNBarnwell Industries, Inc.QOC 5.9GRVEGroove Botanicals, Inc.QOC 3.7WDSWoodside Energy Group LtdQOC 8.5TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: RSRV · MUR · MNR · VTS · PROP · ANNA · BRN · GRVE · WDS · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRGY?

7 companies across all industries closest to CRGY’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

NGGNational Grid plcQOC 7.7TRPTC Energy CorporationQOC 7.7BCGBinah Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.7TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7PDSPrecision Drilling CorporationQOC 7.7NENNew England Realty Associates Limited PartnershipQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NGG · TRP · BCG · TTI · PDS · NEN · NVDA

Where Does CRGY Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

CRGY is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Crescent Energy Company’s Valuation?

What is Crescent Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Crescent Energy Company (CRGY)'s intrinsic value at $14.70 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.33 to $31.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRGY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.65, 7 of 12 active models suggest CRGY may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $14.70, within 7.7% of the current price of $13.65 — a consensus view that CRGY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Crescent Energy Company's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for CRGY?

Crescent Energy Company's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRGY?

CirclFi analyzes CRGY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRGY?

Of the 12 models currently active on CRGY, First Chicago is the most bullish at $31.47 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.33. CirclFi's published fair value for CRGY is the median of that range, $14.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 205% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRGY a value trap in 2026?

Crescent Energy Company's Value Trap score is 46/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) has a median fair value of $14.70 — within 7.7% of the current price of $13.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRGY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRGY valuation
  • Financial statements: Crescent Energy Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001866175) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRGY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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