BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Fair Value 2026

BKSY · Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) trades at $24.27, approximately 1480% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.54. QOC: 5.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BKSY
Price
$24.27
Quality Score
5.2/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $1.54, 93.7% below the current price of $24.27. Estimates range from $0.44 to $26.44. BKSY scores 5.2/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BlackSky Technology Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.54 -93.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$4.01 -83.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$10.72 -55.8%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
$0.56 -97.7%

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What Is BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BlackSky Technology Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.97, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $24.27. With 7 out of 9 models flagging downside (-67.1% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +9.0% (fair value: $26.44), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -98.2% ($0.44). The spread between these extremes — +107.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BKSY?

9 of 13 models are currently active for BKSY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BKSY's intrinsic value at $1.54, implying -93.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BKSY Rank in Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment?

Among 19 Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment stocks, BKSY ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a telecom operator, BlackSky Technology Inc. operates in a sector where average revenue per user (ARPU) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BKSY should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BKSY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BKSY a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for BlackSky Technology Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, BlackSky Technology Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.2/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BKSY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BKSY's 9 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BlackSky Technology Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BKTI · QCOM · UI · MSI · HLIT

Frequently Asked Questions About BlackSky Technology Inc.

What is BlackSky Technology Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.54. The Quality of Company score is 5.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BKSY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.27, 2 of 9 active models suggest BKSY may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $1.54, 93.7% below the current price of $24.27 — a consensus view that BKSY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BlackSky Technology Inc.'s business model in Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.2 mean for BKSY?

BlackSky Technology Inc.'s QOC of 5.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BKSY?

CirclFi analyzes BKSY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BKSY a value trap in 2026?

BlackSky Technology Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) has a median fair value of $1.54 — 93.7% below the current price of $24.27 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BKSY/ · Methodology

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