AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Fair Value 2026

ASLE · Airports & Air Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) trades at $4.97, versus a $3.04 median fair value across its 11 active models — 38.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASLE
Price
$4.97
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $3.04, 38.9% below the current price of $4.97. Estimates range from $0.45 to $11.54. ASLE scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ASLE’s -38.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AerSale Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASLE?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.97)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.78 -64.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.04 -38.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $2.66 -46.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.91 -1.1%
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What Is ASLE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.45 to $11.54

CirclFi's 11 active models place AerSale Corporation (ASLE) between $0.45 and $11.54 per share, a spread of 365% of the median. The median of that range — $3.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASLE, against a current price of $4.97.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · PWERM
$0.45median $3.04$11.54
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$0.45
Most bullish modelPWERM$11.54
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASLE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASLE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AerSale Corporation (ASLE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on AerSale Corporation at its current price of $4.97. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $3.04 (-38.9% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $11.54 (+132.1%), versus RCMH-DCF at $0.45 (-90.8%). This +223.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ASLE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ASLE. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASLE is $3.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASLE Rank in Airports & Air Services?

Among 9 Airports & Air Services stocks, ASLE ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

AerSale Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ASLE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASLE a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for AerSale Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AerSale Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +223.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASLE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASLE's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AerSale Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Airports & Air Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Airports & Air Services stocks with 13-model coverage

OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 9.6ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.QOC 9.5PACGrupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.0SKASSaker Aviation Services, Inc.QOC 6.5SOARVolato Group, Inc.QOC 6.4JOBYJoby Aviation, Inc.QOC 5.8UPWheels Up Experience Inc.QOC 4.8CAAPCorporación América Airports S.A.QOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: OMAB · ASR · PAC · SKAS · SOAR · JOBY · UP · CAAP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASLE?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASLE’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3HGBLHeritage Global Inc.QOC 7.3AEYEAudioEye, Inc.QOC 7.3CVBFCVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3BRZEBraze, Inc.QOC 7.3BNBrookfield CorporationQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNP · HGBL · AEYE · CVBF · BRZE · BN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AerSale Corporation’s Valuation?

What is AerSale Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AerSale Corporation (ASLE)'s intrinsic value at $3.04 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.45 to $11.54. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASLE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.97, 3 of 11 active models suggest ASLE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $3.04, 38.9% below the current price of $4.97 — a consensus view that ASLE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AerSale Corporation's business model in Airports & Air Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for ASLE?

AerSale Corporation's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASLE?

CirclFi analyzes ASLE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASLE?

Of the 11 models currently active on ASLE, PWERM is the most bullish at $11.54 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $0.45. CirclFi's published fair value for ASLE is the median of that range, $3.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 365% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASLE a value trap in 2026?

AerSale Corporation's Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) has a median fair value of $3.04 — 38.9% below the current price of $4.97 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASLE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASLE valuation
  • Financial statements: AerSale Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001754170) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASLE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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