Alight, Inc. (ALIT) Fair Value 2026

ALIT · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Alight, Inc. (ALIT) trades at $20.82, approximately 83% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $122.35. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALIT
Price
$20.82
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +487.5% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$122.35 +487.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$0.19 -99.1%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$27.73 +33.1%
RCMH-DCF
High Conviction
$34.61 +66.2%

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What Is Alight, Inc. (ALIT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alight, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $33.27. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $20.83 (implied upside of +59.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +487.5% (fair value: $122.35), while First Chicago is the most conservative at -99.1% ($0.19). The spread between these extremes — +586.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ALIT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ALIT. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALIT's intrinsic value at $122.35, implying +487.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALIT Rank in Software - Application?

Among 20 Software - Application stocks, ALIT ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Alight, Inc., metrics like gross margin profile provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALIT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALIT a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Alight, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alight, Inc. scores 5.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +586.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALIT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALIT's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alight, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Alight, Inc.

What is Alight, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Alight, Inc. (ALIT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $122.35. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALIT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.82, 6 of 9 active models suggest ALIT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alight, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for ALIT?

Alight, Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALIT?

CirclFi analyzes ALIT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALIT a value trap in 2026?

Alight, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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