What Is ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.93, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $12.60. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-37.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +172.1% (fair value: $34.28), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -97.6% ($0.30). The spread between these extremes — +269.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ADTN?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ADTN. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ADTN's intrinsic value at $2.07, implying -83.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ADTN Rank in Communication Equipment?
Among 3 Communication Equipment stocks, ADTN ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.
Within the Communication Equipment space, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where average revenue per user (ARPU) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is ADTN a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADTN a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is rated at 6.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +269.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ADTN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ADTN's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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