Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) Fair Value 2026

ADIL · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) trades at $2.69, approximately 44% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.86. QOC: 4.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADIL
Price
$2.69
Quality Score
4.4/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +26.1% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $2.65, within 1.4% of the current price of $2.69. Estimates range from $0.33 to $5.42. ADIL scores 4.4/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.86 -30.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$3.39 +26.1%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$2.34 -12.8%

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What Is Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $2.87, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $2.69. While the average implied return is +6.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +189.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $5.42 (+101.8%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.33 (-87.6%). This +189.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ADIL?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ADIL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ADIL's intrinsic value at $1.86, implying -30.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADIL Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 76 Biotechnology stocks, ADIL ranks #55 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotech businesses. For Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc, metrics like clinical trial success rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ADIL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADIL a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc scores 4.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +189.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADIL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADIL's 7 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ADMA · AUPH · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc

What is Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.86. The Quality of Company score is 4.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADIL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.69, 3 of 7 active models suggest ADIL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $2.65, within 1.4% of the current price of $2.69 — a consensus view that ADIL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.4 mean for ADIL?

Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc's QOC of 4.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADIL?

CirclFi analyzes ADIL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ADIL a value trap in 2026?

Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc's Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Adial Pharmaceuticals, Inc (ADIL) has a median fair value of $2.65 — within 1.4% of the current price of $2.69 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADIL/ · Methodology

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