Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) Fair Value 2026

XCUR · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (52/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) trades at $1.62, approximately 137% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.68. QOC: 3.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 52/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XCUR
Price
$1.62
Quality Score
3.5/10
Value Trap Risk
52/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 52 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $0.68, 57.8% below the current price of $1.62. Estimates range from $0.08 to $2.30. XCUR scores 3.5/10 on fundamental quality and 52/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Exicure, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.68 -57.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.08 -33.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$0.16 -90.3%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
$0.08 -94.8%

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What Is Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Exicure, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $1.04. Trading at $1.62, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -35.7%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +41.7% (fair value: $2.30), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -94.8% ($0.08). The spread between these extremes — +136.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About XCUR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for XCUR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates XCUR's intrinsic value at $0.68, implying -57.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XCUR Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, XCUR ranks #369 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.5 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

Exicure, Inc.'s positioning within the Pharmaceutical Preparations segment means that R&D productivity ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including licensing and M&A optionality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is XCUR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XCUR a score of 52/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Exicure, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Exicure, Inc. earns a quality score of 3.5/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +136.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XCUR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XCUR's 9 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Exicure, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Exicure, Inc.

What is Exicure, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.68. The Quality of Company score is 3.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XCUR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.62, 3 of 9 active models suggest XCUR may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $0.68, 57.8% below the current price of $1.62 — a consensus view that XCUR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Exicure, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.5 mean for XCUR?

Exicure, Inc.'s QOC of 3.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XCUR?

CirclFi analyzes XCUR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is XCUR a value trap in 2026?

Exicure, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 52/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Exicure, Inc. (XCUR) has a median fair value of $0.68 — 57.8% below the current price of $1.62 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XCUR/ · Methodology

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