Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) Fair Value 2026

STOK · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) trades at $31.62, versus a $10.02 median fair value across its 3 active models — 68.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
STOK
Price
$31.62
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $10.02, 68.3% below the current price of $31.62. Estimates range from $8.86 to $10.68. STOK scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. STOK’s -68.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STOK?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($31.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.02 -68.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $10.68 -66.2%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $8.86 -72.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is STOK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $8.86 to $10.68

CirclFi's 3 active models place Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) between $8.86 and $10.68 per share, a spread of 18% of the median. The median of that range — $10.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STOK, against a current price of $31.62.

Low · FTNNHigh · RCMH-DCF
$8.86median $10.02$10.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$8.86
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$10.68
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on STOK. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STOK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.02, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $31.62. With 3 out of 3 models flagging downside (-68.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About STOK?

3 of 13 models are currently active for STOK. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for STOK is $10.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.02 on its own, implying -68.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STOK Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, STOK ranks #134 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. competes in an environment where partnership revenue often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is STOK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STOK a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. is rated at 6.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+5.8% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STOK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STOK's 3 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

IBRXImmunityBio, Inc.QOC 6.1GLUEMonte Rosa Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.1IOVAIovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.1SILOSilo Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.1RNXTRenovoRx, Inc.QOC 6.1IMRNImmuron LimitedQOC 6.1IMVTImmunovant, Inc.QOC 5.1KYTXKyverna Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.5DRTSAlpha Tau Medical Ltd.QOC 2.6EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: IBRX · GLUE · IOVA · SILO · RNXT · IMRN · IMVT · KYTX · DRTS · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STOK?

7 companies across all industries closest to STOK’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

GEGGreat Elm Group, Inc.QOC 6.1AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc.QOC 6.1IONII-ON Digital Corp.QOC 6.1CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.QOC 6.1MDLKModuLink Inc.QOC 6.1NNENANO Nuclear Energy Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GEG · AESI · IONI · CMP · MDLK · NNE · NVDA

Where Does STOK Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

STOK is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)'s intrinsic value at $10.02 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $8.86 to $10.68. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STOK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $31.62, 0 of 3 active models suggest STOK may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $10.02, 68.3% below the current price of $31.62 — a consensus view that STOK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for STOK?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STOK?

CirclFi analyzes STOK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STOK?

Of the 3 models currently active on STOK, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $10.68 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $8.86. CirclFi's published fair value for STOK is the median of that range, $10.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 18% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STOK a value trap in 2026?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK) has a median fair value of $10.02 — 68.3% below the current price of $31.62 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STOK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STOK valuation
  • Financial statements: Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001623526) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STOK as of ; valuations recomputed .