Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Fair Value 2026

RARE · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) trades at $25.61. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RARE
Price
$25.61
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RARE?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $3.97 -84.5%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.97. Trading at its current price of $25.61, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 1 of 1 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -84.5%.

What Do the Models Say About RARE?

1 of 13 models are currently active for RARE. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RARE Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, RARE ranks #99 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to life sciences company businesses. For Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., metrics like market exclusivity window provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RARE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RARE a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RARE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RARE's 1 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

KYMRKymera Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5PTGXProtagonist Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.4VRDNViridian Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5TRAWTraws Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 6.5XNCRXencor, Inc.QOC 6.4IFRXInflaRx N.V.QOC 5.3OTLKOutlook Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.6ODTXOdyssey Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.6EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: KYMR · PTGX · VRDN · TRAW · IMCR · XNCR · IFRX · OTLK · ODTX · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RARE?

7 companies across all industries closest to RARE’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

PNNTPennantPark Investment CorporationQOC 6.4CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4RDGLVivos Inc.QOC 6.4DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4KBKB Financial Group Inc.QOC 6.4MPMP Materials Corp.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PNNT · CNK · RDGL · DLTH · KB · MP · NVDA

Where Does RARE Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

RARE is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE). The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RARE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.61, 0 of 1 active models suggest RARE may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for RARE?

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RARE?

CirclFi analyzes RARE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RARE a value trap in 2026?

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) a Quality of Company score of 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RARE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RARE valuation
  • Financial statements: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001515673) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RARE as of ; valuations recomputed .