What Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.65. Trading at its current price of $31.71, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -57.0%. Notably, EROIC sees the most upside at +0.5% (fair value: $31.86), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -99.9% ($0.04). The spread between these extremes — +100.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV, EROIC, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About RARE?
12 of 13 models are currently active for RARE. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RARE's intrinsic value at $9.97, implying -68.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does RARE Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?
Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, RARE ranks #80 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →
The Pharmaceutical Preparations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to healthcare company businesses. For Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is RARE a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RARE a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every RARE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across RARE's 12 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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