Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) Fair Value 2026

NKTX · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) trades at $2.66, approximately 418% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.51. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NKTX
Price
$2.66
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +39.5% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $2.67, essentially in line with the current price of $2.66. Estimates range from $0.51 to $3.71. NKTX scores 5.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nkarta, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.51 -80.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.50 -5.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$3.71 +39.5%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nkarta, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.57, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $2.66. With an average implied return of -3.3% across a split 3–3 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +120.2% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +39.5% (fair value: $3.71), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -80.7% ($0.51). The spread between these extremes — +120.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NKTX?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NKTX. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NKTX's intrinsic value at $0.51, implying -80.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NKTX Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, NKTX ranks #199 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

Within the Pharmaceutical Preparations space, Nkarta, Inc. competes in an environment where revenue per drug often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NKTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NKTX a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Nkarta, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Nkarta, Inc. is rated at 5.1/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NKTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NKTX's 7 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nkarta, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Nkarta, Inc.

What is Nkarta, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.51. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NKTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.66, 4 of 7 active models suggest NKTX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $2.67, essentially in line with the current price of $2.66 — a consensus view that NKTX is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nkarta, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for NKTX?

Nkarta, Inc.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NKTX?

CirclFi analyzes NKTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NKTX a value trap in 2026?

Nkarta, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Nkarta, Inc. (NKTX) has a median fair value of $2.67 — essentially in line with the current price of $2.66 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NKTX/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NKTX.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access