Microchip Technology Incorporat (MCHPP) Fair Value 2026

MCHPP · Semiconductors & Related Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Microchip Technology Incorporat (MCHPP) trades at $71.45, approximately 47% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $133.64. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MCHPP
Price
$71.45
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +87.0% upside with 77% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$133.64 +87.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$24.69 -65.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$83.40 +16.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$90.69 +26.9%

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What Is Microchip Technology Incorporat (MCHPP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Microchip Technology Incorporat's intrinsic value is estimated at $80.56, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $71.45. With an average implied return of +12.7% across a split 7–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +220.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +135.3% (fair value: $168.14), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -85.4% ($10.45). The spread between these extremes — +220.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MCHPP?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MCHPP. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MCHPP's intrinsic value at $133.64, implying +87.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MCHPP Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?

Among 86 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, MCHPP ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places MCHPP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →

Microchip Technology Incorporat's positioning within the Semiconductors & Related Devices segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including process node advancement — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MCHPP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MCHPP a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Microchip Technology Incorporat. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Microchip Technology Incorporat scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +220.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MCHPP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MCHPP's 13 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Microchip Technology Incorporat Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AVGO · CRDO · CRUS · MPWR · NVDA

See all Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Microchip Technology Incorporat

What is Microchip Technology Incorporat's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Microchip Technology Incorporat (MCHPP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $133.64. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MCHPP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.45, 7 of 13 active models suggest MCHPP may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Microchip Technology Incorporat's business model in Semiconductors & Related Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for MCHPP?

Microchip Technology Incorporat's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MCHPP?

CirclFi analyzes MCHPP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MCHPP a value trap in 2026?

Microchip Technology Incorporat's Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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