Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) Fair Value 2026

FAC · Electrical Equipment & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) trades at $5.26, versus a $1.12 median fair value across its 5 active models — 78.7% below the current price. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
FAC
Price
$5.26
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $1.12, 78.7% below the current price of $5.26. Estimates range from $0.41 to $1.42. FAC scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FAC’s -78.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Electrical Equipment & Parts sector median is -34.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Factorial Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FAC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $1.03 -80.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.12 -78.7%
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What Is FAC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.41 to $1.42

CirclFi's 5 active models place Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) between $0.41 and $1.42 per share, a spread of 90% of the median. The median of that range — $1.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FAC, against a current price of $5.26.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.41median $1.12$1.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.41
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.42
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FAC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Factorial Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.12. Trading at its current price of $5.26, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -78.7%.

What Do the Models Say About FAC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for FAC. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FAC is $1.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.03 on its own, implying -80.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FAC Rank in Electrical Equipment & Parts?

Among 57 Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, FAC ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks →

The Electrical Equipment & Parts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to regulated utility businesses. For Factorial Energy Inc., metrics like rate base growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FAC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FAC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Factorial Energy Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Factorial Energy Inc. earns a quality score of 5.3/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+19.2% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FAC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FAC's 5 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Factorial Energy Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

LNKSLinkers Industries LimitedQOC 5.4NVXNOVONIX LimitedQOC 5.3ADNHAdvent Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4XPONExpion360 Inc.QOC 5.2PLUGPlug Power Inc.QOC 5.4STISolidion Technology, Inc.QOC 5.1KRFGKing Resources, IncQOC 4.3HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0PPSIPioneer Power Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.6POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: LNKS · NVX · ADNH · XPON · PLUG · STI · KRFG · HAYW · PPSI · POWL · VRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FAC?

7 companies across all industries closest to FAC’s Quality of Company score of 5.3/10.

NBNioCorp Developments Ltd.QOC 5.3MCRPMicropolis AI RoboticsQOC 5.3LCIDLucid Group, Inc.QOC 5.3BSPABallston Spa Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.3SGMLSigma Lithium CorporationQOC 5.3PCPremium Catering (Holdings) LimitedQOC 5.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NB · MCRP · LCID · BSPA · SGML · PC · NVDA

Where Does FAC Sit in CirclFi's Electrical Equipment & Parts Rankings?

FAC is ranked against every other Electrical Equipment & Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Factorial Energy Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Factorial Energy Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC)'s intrinsic value at $1.12 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.41 to $1.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FAC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.26, 0 of 5 active models suggest FAC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $1.12, 78.7% below the current price of $5.26 — a consensus view that FAC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Factorial Energy Inc.'s business model in Electrical Equipment & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for FAC?

Factorial Energy Inc.'s QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FAC?

CirclFi analyzes FAC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FAC?

Of the 5 models currently active on FAC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1.42 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.41. CirclFi's published fair value for FAC is the median of that range, $1.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 90% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FAC a value trap in 2026?

Factorial Energy Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Factorial Energy Inc. (FAC) has a median fair value of $1.12 — 78.7% below the current price of $5.26 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FAC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FAC valuation
  • Financial statements: Factorial Energy Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002049662) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FAC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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