Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) Fair Value 2026

CDZI · Water Supply ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) trades at $3.63, approximately 1045% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.32. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CDZI
Price
$3.63
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $0.70, 80.7% below the current price of $3.63. Estimates range from $0.06 to $4.07. CDZI scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cadiz, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.32 -91.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.08 -70.2%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $2.83 -22.2%

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What Is Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cadiz, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.43. Trading at its current price of $3.64, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -60.8%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +11.9% (fair value: $4.07), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -98.4% ($0.06). The spread between these extremes — +110.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CDZI?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CDZI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CDZI's intrinsic value at $0.32, implying -91.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CDZI Rank in Water Supply?

Among 11 Water Supply stocks, CDZI ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Cadiz, Inc.'s positioning within the Water Supply segment means that payout ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including rate case outcomes — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CDZI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CDZI a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Cadiz, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Cadiz, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CDZI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CDZI's 6 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cadiz, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Water Supply Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Water Supply stocks with 13-model coverage

HTOH2O AmericaQOC 9.9SBSCompanhia de saneamento Basico QOC 9.8CWCOConsolidated Water Co. Ltd.QOC 9.4CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 9.3WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.9PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.6AWKAmerican Water Works Company, IQOC 8.2AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: HTO · SBS · CWCO · CWT · WTRG

Frequently Asked Questions About Cadiz, Inc.

What is Cadiz, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.32. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CDZI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.63, 1 of 6 active models suggest CDZI may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $0.70, 80.7% below the current price of $3.63 — a consensus view that CDZI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cadiz, Inc.'s business model in Water Supply.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for CDZI?

Cadiz, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CDZI?

CirclFi analyzes CDZI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CDZI a value trap in 2026?

Cadiz, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI) has a median fair value of $0.70 — 80.7% below the current price of $3.63 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CDZI/ · Methodology

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