CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Fair Value 2026

CAVA · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) trades at $66.94, versus a $11.41 median fair value across its 7 active models — 83.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAVA
Price
$66.94
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $11.41, 83.0% below the current price of $66.94. Estimates range from $2.31 to $19.50. CAVA scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CAVA’s -83.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CAVA Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CAVA?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($66.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.40 -84.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $16.54 -75.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.31 -96.6%
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What Is CAVA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.31 to $19.50

CirclFi's 7 active models place CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) between $2.31 and $19.50 per share, a spread of 151% of the median. The median of that range — $11.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CAVA, against a current price of $66.94.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.31median $11.41$19.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$2.31
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$19.50
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CAVA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CAVA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CAVA Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.41, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $66.94. With 7 out of 7 models flagging downside (-83.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About CAVA?

7 of 13 models are currently active for CAVA. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CAVA is $11.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAVA Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, CAVA ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

Within the Restaurants space, CAVA Group, Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CAVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAVA a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for CAVA Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, CAVA Group, Inc. is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+25.7% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAVA's 7 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CAVA Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 6.9MBMasterBeef GroupQOC 6.8PTLOPortillo's Inc.QOC 7.1BTBDBT Brands, Inc.QOC 6.7BLMNBloomin' Brands, Inc.QOC 7.1JACKJack in the Box Inc.QOC 6.7GENKGEN Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 5.2BDLFlanigan's Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.8CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.QOC 7.9EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: FWRG · MB · PTLO · BTBD · BLMN · JACK · GENK · BDL · CBRL · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CAVA?

7 companies across all industries closest to CAVA’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

CYRXCryoport, Inc.QOC 6.9CTKBCytek Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.9AEHRAehr Test Systems, Inc.QOC 6.9PCSVPCS Edventures!, Inc.QOC 6.9EMLThe Eastern CompanyQOC 6.9HRIHerc Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CYRX · CTKB · AEHR · PCSV · EML · HRI · NVDA

Where Does CAVA Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

CAVA is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About CAVA Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CAVA Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)'s intrinsic value at $11.41 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.31 to $19.50. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $66.94, 0 of 7 active models suggest CAVA may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $11.41, 83.0% below the current price of $66.94 — a consensus view that CAVA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CAVA Group, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for CAVA?

CAVA Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAVA?

CirclFi analyzes CAVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CAVA?

Of the 7 models currently active on CAVA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $19.50 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $2.31. CirclFi's published fair value for CAVA is the median of that range, $11.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 151% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CAVA a value trap in 2026?

CAVA Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) has a median fair value of $11.41 — 83.0% below the current price of $66.94 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CAVA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CAVA valuation
  • Financial statements: CAVA Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001639438) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CAVA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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