Alcon Inc. (ALC) Fair Value 2026

ALC · Medical Instruments & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Alcon Inc. (ALC) trades at $72.23, versus a $72.03 median fair value across its 2 active models — 0.3% below the current price. QOC: 2.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALC
Price
$72.23
Quality Score
2.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +90.9% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Alcon Inc. (ALC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Alcon Inc. (ALC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $72.03, essentially in line with the current price of $72.23. Estimates range from $6.13 to $137.92. ALC scores 2.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALC’s -0.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Medical Instruments & Supplies sector median is -36.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alcon Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALC?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($72.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.13 -91.5%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $137.92 +90.9%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Alcon Inc. (ALC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alcon Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $72.03, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $72.23. With a median implied return of -0.3% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +182.5% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +90.9% (fair value: $137.92), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -91.5% ($6.13). The spread between these extremes — +182.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ALC?

2 of 13 models are currently active for ALC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALC is $72.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALC Rank in Medical Instruments & Supplies?

Among 55 Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, ALC ranks #54 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks →

Alcon Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ALC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Alcon Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alcon Inc. earns a quality score of 2.7/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +182.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALC's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alcon Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

ZJYLJin Medical International Ltd.QOC 2.9NNNNAnbio BiotechnologyQOC 2.4TUTHStandard Dental Labs Inc.QOC 3.2ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4UEECUnited Health Products, Inc.QOC 4.1RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc.QOC 8.2OSUROraSure Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.8BNGOBionano Genomics, Inc.QOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: ZJYL · NNNN · TUTH · ISRG · UEEC · RMD · UTMD · OSUR · BNGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALC’s Quality of Company score of 2.7/10.

RIORio Tinto GroupQOC 2.7PLBLPolibeli Group LtdQOC 2.7DACDanaos CorporationQOC 2.7SKKSKK Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7PTLEPTL LimitedQOC 2.7FROFrontline plcQOC 2.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RIO · PLBL · DAC · SKK · PTLE · FRO · NVDA

Where Does ALC Sit in CirclFi's Medical Instruments & Supplies Rankings?

ALC is ranked against every other Medical Instruments & Supplies stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alcon Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alcon Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alcon Inc. (ALC)'s intrinsic value at $72.03 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.13 to $137.92. The Quality of Company score is 2.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $72.23, 1 of 2 active models suggest ALC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $72.03, essentially in line with the current price of $72.23 — a consensus view that ALC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alcon Inc.'s business model in Medical Instruments & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.7 mean for ALC?

Alcon Inc.'s QOC of 2.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALC?

CirclFi analyzes ALC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALC a value trap in 2026?

Alcon Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Alcon Inc. (ALC) has a median fair value of $72.03 — essentially in line with the current price of $72.23 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALC valuation
  • Financial statements: Alcon Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001167379) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALC as of ; valuations recomputed .