What Is Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Rio Tinto Plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $79.87, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $89.84. While the average implied return is -11.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +179.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $180.70 (+101.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $19.14 (-78.7%). This +179.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Rio Tinto Plc's intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About RIO?
13 of 13 models are currently active for RIO. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RIO's intrinsic value at $32.94, implying -63.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does RIO Rank in Metal Mining?
Among 38 Metal Mining stocks, RIO ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.5 signals below-average fundamentals.
See all Most Undervalued Metal Mining Stocks →
The Metal Mining sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Rio Tinto Plc, metrics like margin expansion trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is RIO a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for RIO. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Rio Tinto Plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Rio Tinto Plc earns a quality score of 2.5/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every RIO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across RIO's 13 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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