Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Fair Value 2026

RIO · Other Industrial Metals & Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) trades at $95.89, versus a $176.39 median fair value across its 2 active models — 83.9% above the current price. QOC: 2.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RIO
Price
$95.89
Quality Score
2.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +116.5% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $176.39, 83.9% above the current price of $95.89. Estimates range from $145.14 to $207.64. RIO scores 2.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. RIO’s +83.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Other Industrial Metals & Mining sector median is -40.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Rio Tinto Group Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RIO?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($95.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $207.64 +116.5%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $145.14 +51.4%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Rio Tinto Group. Trading at $95.89 against an estimated intrinsic value of $176.39, 2 of 2 active models flag meaningful upside of +83.9% at the median. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $207.64 (+116.5%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $145.14 (+51.4%). This +65.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Rio Tinto Group's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RIO?

2 of 13 models are currently active for RIO. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RIO is $176.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RIO Rank in Other Industrial Metals & Mining?

Among 65 Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, RIO ranks #58 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks →

The Other Industrial Metals & Mining sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Rio Tinto Group, metrics like margin expansion trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RIO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RIO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Rio Tinto Group. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Rio Tinto Group earns a quality score of 2.7/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +65.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RIO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RIO's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Rio Tinto Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

NALGNorth America Lithium Corp.QOC 2.9VALEVale S.A.QOC 2.6AMLMAmerican Lithium Minerals, Inc.QOC 2.9LGOLargo Inc.QOC 2.5ACRLAtacama Resources International, Inc.QOC 2.9GSMFerroglobe PLCQOC 2.5USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.QOC 5.7CHNRChina Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 5.1LTUMLithium CorporationQOC 4.3MTRNMaterion CorporationQOC 8.9BHPBHP Group LimitedQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: NALG · VALE · AMLM · LGO · ACRL · GSM · USAR · CHNR · LTUM · MTRN · BHP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RIO?

7 companies across all industries closest to RIO’s Quality of Company score of 2.7/10.

ALCAlcon Inc.QOC 2.7TRIThomson Reuters CorporationQOC 2.7MASK3 E Network Technology Group LimitedQOC 2.7NSRXNasus Pharma Ltd.QOC 2.7PTLEPTL LimitedQOC 2.7KNRXKnorex Ltd.QOC 2.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ALC · TRI · MASK · NSRX · PTLE · KNRX · NVDA

Where Does RIO Sit in CirclFi's Other Industrial Metals & Mining Rankings?

RIO is ranked against every other Other Industrial Metals & Mining stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Rio Tinto Group’s Valuation?

What is Rio Tinto Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Rio Tinto Group (RIO)'s intrinsic value at $176.39 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $145.14 to $207.64. The Quality of Company score is 2.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RIO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $95.89, 2 of 2 active models suggest RIO may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $176.39, 83.9% above the current price of $95.89 — a consensus view that RIO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Rio Tinto Group's business model in Other Industrial Metals & Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.7 mean for RIO?

Rio Tinto Group's QOC of 2.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RIO?

CirclFi analyzes RIO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RIO a value trap in 2026?

Rio Tinto Group's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a median fair value of $176.39 — 83.9% above the current price of $95.89 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RIO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RIO valuation
  • Financial statements: Rio Tinto Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000863064) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RIO as of ; valuations recomputed .