AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON) Fair Value 2026

AEON · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (66/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON) trades at $0.31. QOC: 3.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 66/100 (DANGER). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AEON
Price
$0.31
Quality Score
3.7/10
Value Trap Risk
66/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 66 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AEON?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $0.05 -83.1%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.05, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $0.31. With 1 out of 1 models flagging downside (-83.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About AEON?

1 of 13 models are currently active for AEON. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AEON Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, AEON ranks #558 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a biotech sector, AEON Biopharma, Inc. operates in a sector where partnership revenue is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AEON should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AEON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AEON a score of 66/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for AEON Biopharma, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 3.7/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record. Investors should note the company's elevated value trap risk score, which suggests apparent undervaluation may not be what it seems.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AEON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AEON's 1 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AEON Biopharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ABPOAbpro Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.8CTXRCitius Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 3.7OCEAOcean Biomedical, Inc.QOC 3.8SKYESkye Bioscience, Inc.QOC 3.7TVGNTevogen Bio Holdings Inc.QOC 3.8BIVIBioVie Inc.QOC 3.7SNDXSyndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.5VSTMVerastem, Inc.QOC 5.4CLRBCellectar Biosciences, Inc.QOC 4.7EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ABPO · CTXR · OCEA · SKYE · TVGN · BIVI · SNDX · VSTM · CLRB · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AEON?

7 companies across all industries closest to AEON’s Quality of Company score of 3.7/10.

NTRXEntrex Carbon Market, IncQOC 3.7CHGAChange Agents CorporationQOC 3.7AVAIAvaí Bio, Inc.QOC 3.7OFRMOnce Upon A Farm, PBCQOC 3.7CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8QNTQuantinuum Inc.QOC 3.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTRX · CHGA · AVAI · OFRM · CETI · QNT · NVDA

Where Does AEON Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

AEON is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AEON Biopharma, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON). The Quality of Company score is 3.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AEON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.31, 0 of 1 active models suggest AEON may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.7 mean for AEON?

AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s QOC of 3.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AEON?

CirclFi analyzes AEON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AEON a value trap in 2026?

AEON Biopharma, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 66/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON) a Quality of Company score of 3.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AEON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AEON valuation
  • Financial statements: AEON Biopharma, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001837607) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AEON as of ; valuations recomputed .