Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) Fair Value 2026

TVRD · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) trades at $1.08, versus a $1.13 median fair value across its 2 active models — 4.2% above the current price. QOC: 4.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TVRD
Price
$1.08
Quality Score
4.1/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +25.7% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.1/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $1.13, within 4.2% of the current price of $1.08. Estimates range from $0.89 to $1.36. TVRD scores 4.1/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TVRD’s +4.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -61.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TVRD?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.36 +25.7%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $0.89 -17.4%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $1.08. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $1.13 (+4.2% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $1.36 (+25.7%), versus PWERM at $0.89 (-17.4%). This +43.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TVRD?

2 of 13 models are currently active for TVRD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TVRD is $1.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TVRD Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 622 Biotechnology stocks, TVRD ranks #515 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that R&D burn rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform technology validation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TVRD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TVRD a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. earns a quality score of 4.1/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +43.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TVRD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TVRD's 2 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

DRMADermata Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.1MTNBMatinas BioPharma Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.1MTVAMetaVia Inc.QOC 4.1NGENNervGen Pharma Corp.QOC 4.1GRIGRI Bio, Inc.QOC 4.1GTBPGT Biopharma, Inc.QOC 4.1ADAGAdagene Inc.QOC 7.0DNTHDianthus Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.6DFTXDefinium Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: DRMA · MTNB · MTVA · NGEN · GRI · GTBP · ADAG · DNTH · DFTX · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TVRD?

6 companies across all industries closest to TVRD’s Quality of Company score of 4.1/10.

SEGGSports Entertainment Gaming Global CorporationQOC 4.1VYNDVynleads, Inc.QOC 4.1ARRTArtisan Consumer Goods, Inc.QOC 4.1RAINRain Enhancement Technologies Holdco, Inc.QOC 4.1SSTSystem1, Inc.QOC 4.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SEGG · VYND · ARRT · RAIN · SST · NVDA

Where Does TVRD Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

TVRD is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD)'s intrinsic value at $1.13 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.89 to $1.36. The Quality of Company score is 4.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TVRD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.08, 1 of 2 active models suggest TVRD may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $1.13, within 4.2% of the current price of $1.08 — a consensus view that TVRD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.1 mean for TVRD?

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 4.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TVRD?

CirclFi analyzes TVRD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TVRD a value trap in 2026?

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) has a median fair value of $1.13 — within 4.2% of the current price of $1.08 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TVRD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TVRD valuation
  • Financial statements: Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001346830) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TVRD as of ; valuations recomputed .