Noodles & Company (NDLS) Fair Value 2026

NDLS · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Noodles & Company (NDLS) trades at $14.77, versus a $16.63 median fair value across its 2 active models — 12.6% above the current price. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NDLS
Price
$14.77
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +43.3% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Noodles & Company (NDLS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Noodles & Company (NDLS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $16.63, 12.6% above the current price of $14.77. Estimates range from $12.09 to $21.16. NDLS scores 5.1/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NDLS’s +12.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Noodles & Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NDLS?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $12.09 -18.1%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $21.16 +43.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Noodles & Company (NDLS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Noodles & Company presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $14.77. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $16.63 (+12.6% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $21.16 (+43.3%), versus Regime Cross at $12.09 (-18.1%). This +61.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NDLS?

2 of 13 models are currently active for NDLS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NDLS is $16.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NDLS Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, NDLS ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

Within the Restaurants space, Noodles & Company competes in an environment where customer lifetime value (CLV) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NDLS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NDLS a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Noodles & Company. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Noodles & Company is rated at 5.1/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +61.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NDLS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NDLS's 2 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Noodles & Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.2VENUVenu Holding CorporationQOC 5.1GENKGEN Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 5.2REBNReborn Coffee, Inc.QOC 5.0BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.QOC 5.4HWHHWH International Inc.QOC 4.8BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8MBMasterBeef GroupQOC 6.8EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: CNNE · VENU · GENK · REBN · BRCB · HWH · BROS · SHAK · MB · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NDLS?

7 companies across all industries closest to NDLS’s Quality of Company score of 5.1/10.

APHPAmerican Picture House CorporationQOC 5.2BMXIBrookmount Explorations Inc.QOC 5.1SNTLSentinel Holdings Ltd.QOC 5.2TGHLThe Growhub LimitedQOC 5.1CIRXCirTran CorporationQOC 5.2BETRBetter Home & Finance Holding CompanyQOC 5.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: APHP · BMXI · SNTL · TGHL · CIRX · BETR · NVDA

Where Does NDLS Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

NDLS is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Noodles & Company’s Valuation?

What is Noodles & Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Noodles & Company (NDLS)'s intrinsic value at $16.63 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.09 to $21.16. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NDLS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.77, 1 of 2 active models suggest NDLS may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $16.63, 12.6% above the current price of $14.77 — a consensus view that NDLS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Noodles & Company's business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for NDLS?

Noodles & Company's QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NDLS?

CirclFi analyzes NDLS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NDLS a value trap in 2026?

Noodles & Company's Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Noodles & Company (NDLS) has a median fair value of $16.63 — 12.6% above the current price of $14.77 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NDLS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NDLS valuation
  • Financial statements: Noodles & Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001275158) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NDLS as of ; valuations recomputed .