Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) Fair Value 2026

MBRX · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (56/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) trades at $0.65. QOC: 3.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 56/100 (WARN). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MBRX
Price
$0.65
Quality Score
3.9/10
Value Trap Risk
56/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +174.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 56 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MBRX?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.78 +174.5%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Moleculin Biotech, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.78. At a current market price of $0.65, 1 of 1 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +174.5%.

What Do the Models Say About MBRX?

1 of 13 models are currently active for MBRX. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MBRX Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, MBRX ranks #545 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.9 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a life sciences company, Moleculin Biotech, Inc. operates in a sector where cash runway (months) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MBRX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MBRX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MBRX a score of 56/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Moleculin Biotech, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Moleculin Biotech, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 3.9/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MBRX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MBRX's 1 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Moleculin Biotech, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ADILAdial Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 3.9TPSTTempest Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.9RGBPRegen BioPharma, Inc.QOC 3.9NCNANuCana plcQOC 3.9DWTXDogwood Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.9RNAZTransCode Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.9ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 6.6SGPSpyGlass Pharma, Inc.QOC 5.4VANIVivani Medical, Inc.QOC 4.7EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ADIL · TPST · RGBP · NCNA · DWTX · RNAZ · ABCL · SGP · VANI · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MBRX?

6 companies across all industries closest to MBRX’s Quality of Company score of 3.9/10.

PARKPark Dental Partners, Inc.QOC 3.9DFDVDeFi Development Corp.QOC 3.9FOXOFOXO Technologies Inc.QOC 3.9TMSTeamshares Inc.QOC 3.9ESSIEco Science Solutions, Inc.QOC 3.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PARK · DFDV · FOXO · TMS · ESSI · NVDA

Where Does MBRX Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

MBRX is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Moleculin Biotech, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Moleculin Biotech, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX). The Quality of Company score is 3.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MBRX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.65, 1 of 1 active models suggest MBRX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Moleculin Biotech, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.9 mean for MBRX?

Moleculin Biotech, Inc.'s QOC of 3.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MBRX?

CirclFi analyzes MBRX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MBRX a value trap in 2026?

Moleculin Biotech, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 56/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) a Quality of Company score of 3.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MBRX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MBRX valuation
  • Financial statements: Moleculin Biotech, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001659617) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MBRX as of ; valuations recomputed .