Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) Fair Value 2026

LESL · Retail-Retail Stores, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) trades at $2.97, approximately 17% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.59. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LESL
Price
$2.97
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +20.8% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $2.26, 23.8% below the current price of $2.97. Estimates range from $0.94 to $3.59. LESL scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Leslie's, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.97)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$3.59 +20.8%
ML-RIV
Low Conviction
$0.94 -68.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Leslie's, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.26, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $2.97. With an average implied return of -23.8% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +89.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +20.8% (fair value: $3.59), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -68.3% ($0.94). The spread between these extremes — +89.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LESL?

2 of 13 models are currently active for LESL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LESL's intrinsic value at $3.59, implying +20.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LESL Rank in Retail-Retail Stores, NEC?

Among 18 Retail-Retail Stores, NEC stocks, LESL ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Retail-Retail Stores, NEC sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Leslie's, Inc., metrics like same-store sales growth (comps) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LESL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LESL a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Leslie's, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Leslie's, Inc. scores 5.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +89.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LESL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LESL's 2 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Leslie's, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Retail Stores, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Retail Stores, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: JD · ULTA · SGU · BBWI · SBH

Frequently Asked Questions About Leslie's, Inc.

What is Leslie's, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.59. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LESL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.97, 1 of 2 active models suggest LESL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $2.26, 23.8% below the current price of $2.97 — a consensus view that LESL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Leslie's, Inc.'s business model in Retail-Retail Stores, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for LESL?

Leslie's, Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LESL?

CirclFi analyzes LESL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LESL a value trap in 2026?

Leslie's, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Leslie's, Inc. (LESL) has a median fair value of $2.26 — 23.8% below the current price of $2.97 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LESL/ · Methodology