ING Group, N.V. (ING) Fair Value 2026

ING · Commercial Banks, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, ING Group, N.V. (ING) trades at $32.83, approximately 214% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $10.45. QOC: 2.0/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ING
Price
$32.83
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.5% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is ING Group, N.V. (ING) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ING Group, N.V. (ING) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $28.13, 14.3% below the current price of $32.83. Estimates range from $9.38 to $93.11. ING scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ING Group, N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $10.45 -68.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $12.67 -61.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $25.75 -21.6%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $33.99 +3.5%

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What Is ING Group, N.V. (ING) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ING Group, N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $29.98. Trading at $32.83, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -8.7%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $93.11 (+183.6%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $9.38 (-71.4%). This +255.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about ING Group, N.V.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ING?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ING. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ING's intrinsic value at $10.45, implying -68.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ING Rank in Commercial Banks, NEC?

Among 33 Commercial Banks, NEC stocks, ING ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks →

ING Group, N.V.'s positioning within the Commercial Banks, NEC segment means that net interest margin (NIM) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ING a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ING. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for ING Group, N.V.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ING Group, N.V. scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +255.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ING valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ING's 12 active models, average confidence is 7%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ING Group, N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Commercial Banks, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, IncQOC 9.7INTRInter & Co. Inc.QOC 9.4BMABanco Macro S.A.QOC 8.9GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.8HDBHDFC Bank LimitedQOC 8.7NTBBank of N.T. Butterfield & Son QOC 8.7VBNKVersaBankQOC 8.5SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: ESQ · INTR · BMA · GGAL · HDB

See all Commercial Banks, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About ING Group, N.V.

What is ING Group, N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, ING Group, N.V. (ING) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $10.45. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ING overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.83, 5 of 12 active models suggest ING may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $28.13, 14.3% below the current price of $32.83 — a consensus view that ING is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ING Group, N.V.'s business model in Commercial Banks, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for ING?

ING Group, N.V.'s QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ING?

CirclFi analyzes ING with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ING a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ING at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ING Group, N.V. (ING) has a median fair value of $28.13 — 14.3% below the current price of $32.83 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ING/ · Methodology

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