Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) Fair Value 2026

GUTS · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) trades at $0.66, versus a $0.46 median fair value across its 2 active models — 30.0% below the current price. QOC: 4.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GUTS
Price
$0.66
Quality Score
4.2/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $0.46, 30.0% below the current price of $0.66. Estimates range from $0.32 to $0.60. GUTS scores 4.2/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GUTS’s -30.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Fractyl Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GUTS?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.60 -8.6%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $0.32 -51.4%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fractyl Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.46, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $0.66. With 2 out of 2 models flagging downside (-30.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Dynamic NAV targets $0.60 (-8.6%), versus PWERM at $0.32 (-51.4%). This +42.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GUTS?

2 of 13 models are currently active for GUTS. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for GUTS is $0.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GUTS Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, GUTS ranks #501 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Fractyl Health, Inc. competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GUTS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GUTS a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Fractyl Health, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Fractyl Health, Inc. is rated at 4.2/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +42.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GUTS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GUTS's 2 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Fractyl Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

PALIPalisade Bio, Inc.QOC 4.2SANASana Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 4.2INDPIndaptus Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.3NVCTNuvectis Pharma, Inc.QOC 4.2PASGPassage Bio, Inc.QOC 4.3SYRESpyre Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.2NVAXNovavax, Inc.QOC 7.7OTLCOncotelic Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.7AIMAIM ImmunoTech Inc.QOC 4.9EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: PALI · SANA · INDP · NVCT · PASG · SYRE · NVAX · OTLC · AIM · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GUTS?

6 companies across all industries closest to GUTS’s Quality of Company score of 4.2/10.

SDSTStardust Power Inc.QOC 4.2GMERGood Gaming, Inc.QOC 4.2FEAV5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.2SLSRSolaris Resources Inc.QOC 4.2DSSDSS, Inc.QOC 4.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SDST · GMER · FEAV · SLSR · DSS · NVDA

Where Does GUTS Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

GUTS is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Fractyl Health, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Fractyl Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS)'s intrinsic value at $0.46 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.32 to $0.60. The Quality of Company score is 4.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GUTS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.66, 0 of 2 active models suggest GUTS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $0.46, 30.0% below the current price of $0.66 — a consensus view that GUTS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Fractyl Health, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.2 mean for GUTS?

Fractyl Health, Inc.'s QOC of 4.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GUTS?

CirclFi analyzes GUTS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GUTS a value trap in 2026?

Fractyl Health, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Fractyl Health, Inc. (GUTS) has a median fair value of $0.46 — 30.0% below the current price of $0.66 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GUTS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GUTS valuation
  • Financial statements: Fractyl Health, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001572616) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GUTS as of ; valuations recomputed .