First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBIP) Fair Value 2026

FGBIP · Savings Institution, Federally Chartered ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBIP) trades at $20.04, approximately 75% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $80.38. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FGBIP
Price
$20.04
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +301.1% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $80.38 +301.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $25.28 +26.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $37.39 +86.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $5.97 -70.2%

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What Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBIP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. at $20.04. With an estimated intrinsic value of $37.92 and 8 of 11 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +89.2%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $88.05 (+339.4%), while First Chicago — the most conservative — estimates $5.97 (-70.2%). This +409.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FGBIP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for FGBIP. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FGBIP's intrinsic value at $80.38, implying +301.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FGBIP Rank in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered?

Among 36 Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks, FGBIP ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks →

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FGBIP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FGBIP a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +409.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FGBIP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FGBIP's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks with 13-model coverage

CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.5MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3HTBHomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.1AXAxos Financial, Inc.QOC 9.0FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7CLSTCatalyst Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.5BVFLBV Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5BCBPBCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ)QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: CPBI · MGYR · HTB · AX · FCAP

See all Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.

What is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBIP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $80.38. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FGBIP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.04, 8 of 11 active models suggest FGBIP may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for FGBIP?

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FGBIP?

CirclFi analyzes FGBIP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FGBIP a value trap in 2026?

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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