Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) Fair Value 2026

ALLR · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) trades at $1.18, approximately 102% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.58. QOC: 3.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALLR
Price
$1.18
Quality Score
3.7/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +100.7% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $0.84, 28.8% below the current price of $1.18. Estimates range from $0.06 to $2.37. ALLR scores 3.7/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.58 -50.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$0.93 -20.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$0.07 -93.7%
ML-RIV
High Conviction
$2.37 +100.7%

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What Is Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. at its current price of $1.18. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $0.92 (-21.9% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $2.37 (+100.7%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.06 (-94.7%). This +195.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ALLR?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ALLR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALLR's intrinsic value at $0.58, implying -50.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALLR Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 76 Biotechnology stocks, ALLR ranks #68 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.7 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ALLR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALLR a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. is rated at 3.7/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +195.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALLR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALLR's 10 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ADMA · AUPH · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.

What is Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.58. The Quality of Company score is 3.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALLR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.18, 3 of 10 active models suggest ALLR may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $0.84, 28.8% below the current price of $1.18 — a consensus view that ALLR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.7 mean for ALLR?

Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 3.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALLR?

CirclFi analyzes ALLR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALLR a value trap in 2026?

Allarity Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Allarity Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLR) has a median fair value of $0.84 — 28.8% below the current price of $1.18 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALLR/ · Methodology

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