Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) Fair Value 2026

TVC · Electric Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) trades at $24.00. QOC: 5.7/10. 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TVC
Price
$24.00
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +141.9% upside with 40% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $96.00, 300.0% above the current price of $24.00. Estimates range from $56.03 to $141.69. TVC scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tennessee Valley Authority Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $56.03 +133.4%
Regime Cross-Sectional
Medium Conviction
 $58.06 +141.9%

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What Is Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Tennessee Valley Authority. Trading at $24.00 against an estimated intrinsic value of $97.43, 4 of 4 active models flag meaningful upside of +306.0% on average. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $141.69 (+490.4%), while CUCE — the most conservative — estimates $56.03 (+133.4%). This +356.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Tennessee Valley Authority's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TVC?

4 of 13 models are currently active for TVC. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TVC Rank in Electric Services?

Among 70 Electric Services stocks, TVC ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Electric Services Stocks →

As a utility sector, Tennessee Valley Authority operates in a sector where rate base growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TVC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TVC a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for TVC. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Tennessee Valley Authority. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tennessee Valley Authority is rated at 5.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +356.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TVC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TVC's 4 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tennessee Valley Authority Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electric Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electric Services stocks with 13-model coverage

CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.QOC 8.7VSTVistra Corp.QOC 8.5NEENextEra Energy, Inc.QOC 8.3HNRGHallador Energy CompanyQOC 8.2TACTransAlta CorporationQOC 8.1IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 8.0CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc (HoldinQOC 8.0ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.9

Read investment analysis: CEPU · VST · NEE · HNRG · TAC

See all Electric Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Tennessee Valley Authority

What is Tennessee Valley Authority's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TVC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.00, 4 of 4 active models suggest TVC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $96.00, 300.0% above the current price of $24.00 — a consensus view that TVC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tennessee Valley Authority's business model in Electric Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for TVC?

Tennessee Valley Authority's QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TVC?

CirclFi analyzes TVC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TVC a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for TVC at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVC) has a median fair value of $96.00 — 300.0% above the current price of $24.00 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TVC/ · Methodology

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