Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) Fair Value 2026

TMQ · Gold and Silver Ores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) trades at $3.14, approximately 210% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.01. QOC: 4.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TMQ
Price
$3.14
Quality Score
4.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +39.1% upside with 14% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $2.70, 13.9% below the current price of $3.14. Estimates range from $0.48 to $4.37. TMQ scores 4.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Trilogy Metals Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $1.01 -67.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.52 -51.7%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $4.37 +39.1%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $0.92 -70.6%

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What Is Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Trilogy Metals Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $2.42. Trading at $3.14, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -22.9%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $4.37 (+39.1%), versus ML-RIV at $0.48 (-84.7%). This +123.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TMQ?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TMQ. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TMQ's intrinsic value at $1.01, implying -67.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TMQ Rank in Gold and Silver Ores?

Among 62 Gold and Silver Ores stocks, TMQ ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold and Silver Ores Stocks →

Trilogy Metals Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TMQ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TMQ a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Trilogy Metals Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Trilogy Metals Inc. earns a quality score of 4.9/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TMQ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TMQ's 9 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Trilogy Metals Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold and Silver Ores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Gold and Silver Ores stocks with 13-model coverage

FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.4NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.2HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimQOC 9.1IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.7KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 8.1VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 7.5

Read investment analysis: FSM · NEM · DRD · HMY · IDR

See all Gold and Silver Ores stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Trilogy Metals Inc.

What is Trilogy Metals Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.01. The Quality of Company score is 4.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TMQ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.14, 4 of 9 active models suggest TMQ may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $2.70, 13.9% below the current price of $3.14 — a consensus view that TMQ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Trilogy Metals Inc.'s business model in Gold and Silver Ores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.9 mean for TMQ?

Trilogy Metals Inc.'s QOC of 4.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TMQ?

CirclFi analyzes TMQ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TMQ a value trap in 2026?

Trilogy Metals Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) has a median fair value of $2.70 — 13.9% below the current price of $3.14 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TMQ/ · Methodology

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