BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo (RILYL) Fair Value 2026

RILYL · Investment Advice ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo (RILYL) trades at $14.03, approximately 72% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $49.53. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RILYL
Price
$14.03
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +304.6% upside with 10% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $49.53 +253.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $42.18 +200.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $56.76 +304.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $4.09 -70.8%

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What Is BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo (RILYL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo at $14.03. With an estimated intrinsic value of $30.79 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +119.4%. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $56.76 (+304.6%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.26 (-76.7%). This +381.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RILYL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for RILYL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RILYL's intrinsic value at $49.53, implying +253.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RILYL Rank in Investment Advice?

Among 48 Investment Advice stocks, RILYL ranks #39 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Investment Advice Stocks →

BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is RILYL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RILYL a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo earns a quality score of 5.3/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +381.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RILYL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RILYL's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Investment Advice Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Read investment analysis: HLNE · VCTR · HLI · PJT · MORN

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Frequently Asked Questions About BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo

What is BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo (RILYL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $49.53. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RILYL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.03, 7 of 10 active models suggest RILYL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo's business model in Investment Advice.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for RILYL?

BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo's QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RILYL?

CirclFi analyzes RILYL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RILYL a value trap in 2026?

BRC Group Holdings, Inc. - Depo's Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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