BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Fair Value 2026

BTAI · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) trades at $0.18. QOC: 4.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTAI
Price
$0.18
Quality Score
4.7/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +38.7% upside with 30% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BTAI?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $0.25 +38.7%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.. Trading at $0.18 against an estimated intrinsic value of $0.25, 1 of 1 active models flag meaningful upside of +38.7% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About BTAI?

1 of 13 models are currently active for BTAI. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTAI Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, BTAI ranks #84 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

The Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector introduces analytical considerations specific to pharmaceutical industry businesses. For BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc., metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BTAI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTAI a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. scores 4.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTAI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTAI's 1 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

OWPCOne World Products, Inc.QOC 4.7GELSGelteq LimitedQOC 4.7RGCRegencell Bioscience Holdings LimitedQOC 4.8PLNHPlanet 13 Holdings Inc.QOC 4.7HYEXHealthy Extracts Inc.QOC 4.9PRFXPRF Technologies Ltd.QOC 4.7AKANAkanda Corp.QOC 1.3ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2OGIOrganigram Global Inc.QOC 6.1UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: OWPC · GELS · RGC · PLNH · HYEX · PRFX · AKAN · ETON · OGI · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BTAI?

7 companies across all industries closest to BTAI’s Quality of Company score of 4.7/10.

ADSEADS-TEC Energy PLCQOC 4.7TYRATyra Biosciences, Inc.QOC 4.7ALDSAPPlife Digital Solutions Inc.QOC 4.7ENGNenGene Therapeutics Inc.QOC 4.7BTDRBitdeer Technologies GroupQOC 4.7ARBBARB IOT Group LimitedQOC 4.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ADSE · TYRA · ALDS · ENGN · BTDR · ARBB · NVDA

Where Does BTAI Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

BTAI is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI). The Quality of Company score is 4.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTAI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.18, 1 of 1 active models suggest BTAI may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.7 mean for BTAI?

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 4.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTAI?

CirclFi analyzes BTAI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTAI a value trap in 2026?

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) a Quality of Company score of 4.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BTAI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BTAI valuation
  • Financial statements: BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001720893) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BTAI as of ; valuations recomputed .