BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Fair Value 2026

BTAI · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) trades at $0.92. QOC: 4.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTAI
Price
$0.92
Quality Score
4.9/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +167.6% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $1.29, 40.2% above the current price of $0.92. Estimates range from $0.01 to $2.47. BTAI scores 4.9/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.44 +55.9%
PWERM
Medium Conviction
$2.47 +167.6%

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What Is BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. at $0.92. With an estimated intrinsic value of $1.05 and 3 of 5 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +14.1%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $2.47 (+167.6%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $0.01 (-98.9%). This +266.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BTAI?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BTAI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTAI Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, BTAI ranks #224 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

The Pharmaceutical Preparations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to pharmaceutical industry businesses. For BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc., metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BTAI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTAI a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. scores 4.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +266.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTAI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTAI's 5 active models, average confidence is 15%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.

What is BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 4.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTAI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.92, 3 of 5 active models suggest BTAI may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $1.29, 40.2% above the current price of $0.92 — a consensus view that BTAI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.9 mean for BTAI?

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 4.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTAI?

CirclFi analyzes BTAI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTAI a value trap in 2026?

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) has a median fair value of $1.29 — 40.2% above the current price of $0.92 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BTAI/ · Methodology

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