Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) Fair Value 2026

AVBC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) trades at $22.10, versus a $11.64 median fair value across its 5 active models — 47.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AVBC
Price
$22.10
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $11.64, 47.3% below the current price of $22.10. Estimates range from $1.83 to $15.98. AVBC scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AVBC’s -47.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Avidia Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AVBC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.83 -91.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.33 -53.3%
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What Is AVBC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.83 to $15.98

CirclFi's 5 active models place Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) between $1.83 and $15.98 per share, a spread of 122% of the median. The median of that range — $11.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AVBC, against a current price of $22.10.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$1.83median $11.64$15.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.83
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$15.98
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AVBC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AVBC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.64. Trading at its current price of $22.10, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $15.98 (-27.7%), versus EPV at $1.83 (-91.7%). This +64.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AVBC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AVBC. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AVBC is $11.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AVBC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, AVBC ranks #329 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Avidia Bancorp, Inc., metrics like deposit growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AVBC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AVBC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Avidia Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. scores 6.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +64.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AVBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AVBC's 5 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avidia Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

FSEAFirst Seacoast Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2WSBKWinchester Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2FLGFlagstar Bank, National AssociationQOC 6.4NSTSNSTS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2AVALGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.QOC 6.4OZKBank OZKQOC 6.1ISBAIsabella Bank CorporationQOC 8.5UWHRUwharrie Capital CorpQOC 8.1VLYValley National BancorpQOC 7.7STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FSEA · WSBK · FLG · NSTS · AVAL · OZK · ISBA · UWHR · VLY · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AVBC?

7 companies across all industries closest to AVBC’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

PARPAR Technology CorporationQOC 6.2GGRPThe Glimpse Group IncQOC 6.2SMJFSMJ International Holdings Inc.QOC 6.2TACTransAlta CorporationQOC 6.2GISGeneral Mills, Inc.QOC 6.2TTANServiceTitan, Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PAR · GGRP · SMJF · TAC · GIS · TTAN · NVDA

Where Does AVBC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

AVBC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Avidia Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)'s intrinsic value at $11.64 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.83 to $15.98. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AVBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.10, 0 of 5 active models suggest AVBC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $11.64, 47.3% below the current price of $22.10 — a consensus view that AVBC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for AVBC?

Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AVBC?

CirclFi analyzes AVBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AVBC?

Of the 5 models currently active on AVBC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $15.98 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.83. CirclFi's published fair value for AVBC is the median of that range, $11.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 122% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AVBC a value trap in 2026?

Avidia Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) has a median fair value of $11.64 — 47.3% below the current price of $22.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AVBC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AVBC valuation
  • Financial statements: Avidia Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002058758) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AVBC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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