ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) Fair Value 2026

ALXO · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) trades at $2.03, approximately 155% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.80. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALXO
Price
$2.03
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +118.5% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 5.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $1.20, 40.8% below the current price of $2.03. Estimates range from $0.64 to $4.43. ALXO scores 5.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.80 -60.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.20 -40.8%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $4.43 +118.5%

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What Is ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $1.79. Trading at $2.03, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -11.9%), as 4 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $4.43 (+118.5%), versus ML-RIV at $0.64 (-68.4%). This +186.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ALXO?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ALXO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALXO's intrinsic value at $0.80, implying -60.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALXO Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 76 Biotechnology stocks, ALXO ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotechnology enterprise businesses. For ALX Oncology Holdings Inc., metrics like R&D burn rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALXO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALXO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. scores 5.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +186.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALXO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALXO's 7 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ADMAADMA Biologics IncQOC 10.0AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals IncQOC 9.5ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.4ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 7.1ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings QOC 7.0ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: ADMA · AUPH · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.

What is ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.80. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALXO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.03, 2 of 7 active models suggest ALXO may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $1.20, 40.8% below the current price of $2.03 — a consensus view that ALXO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for ALXO?

ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALXO?

CirclFi analyzes ALXO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALXO a value trap in 2026?

ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) has a median fair value of $1.20 — 40.8% below the current price of $2.03 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALXO/ · Methodology

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