ICL Group Ltd (ICL) Fair Value 2026

ICL · Agricultural Inputs ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ICL Group Ltd (ICL) trades at $5.60, versus a $4.18 median fair value across its 2 active models — 25.3% below the current price. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ICL
Price
$5.60
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +9.8% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is ICL Group Ltd (ICL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, ICL Group Ltd (ICL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $4.18, 25.3% below the current price of $5.60. Estimates range from $2.22 to $6.15. ICL scores 2.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ICL’s -25.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ICL Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ICL?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
$2.22 -60.4%
Relative · Medium Conviction
$6.15 +9.8%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is ICL Group Ltd (ICL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ICL Group Ltd's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $4.18, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $5.60. While the median implied return is -25.3%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +70.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $6.15 (+9.8%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $2.22 (-60.4%). This +70.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about ICL Group Ltd's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ICL?

2 of 13 models are currently active for ICL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ICL is $4.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ICL Rank in Agricultural Inputs?

Among 16 Agricultural Inputs stocks, ICL ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

ICL Group Ltd operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ICL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ICL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for ICL Group Ltd. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ICL Group Ltd scores 2.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +70.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ICL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ICL's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ICL Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Agricultural Inputs Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Agricultural Inputs stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: NXTS · CF · GNVR · UAN · VRDR · CTVA · MOS · BIOX · SEED

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ICL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ICL’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

Read investment analysis: NTCL · EGG · HCAI · KMDA · PRZO · APWC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ICL Group Ltd’s Valuation?

What is ICL Group Ltd's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ICL Group Ltd (ICL)'s intrinsic value at $4.18 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.22 to $6.15. The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ICL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.60, 1 of 2 active models suggest ICL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $4.18, 25.3% below the current price of $5.60 — a consensus view that ICL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ICL Group Ltd's business model in Agricultural Inputs.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for ICL?

ICL Group Ltd's QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ICL?

CirclFi analyzes ICL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ICL a value trap in 2026?

ICL Group Ltd's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, ICL Group Ltd (ICL) has a median fair value of $4.18 — 25.3% below the current price of $5.60 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ICL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ICL valuation
  • Financial statements: ICL Group Ltd 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000941221) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ICL as of ; valuations recomputed .